Open Thread - Game 100: Mets vs Cubs (07/25/2006) on SNY

by Eric Simon on Jul 25, 2006 6:52 PM EDT

The Mets have already lost this series in my eyes, by virtue of dropping any game to the Cubs. Let's see if they can salvage either of the last two games. Facing the good Zambrano tonight, there are no guarantees.

Let's go Mets!

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'Cuz it's never too early...

Okay, so we've dropped two straight. Let's try to lighten the mood a bit.

If nobody minds, thought I'd add this little tidbit to some game threads (when I'm around). Questions or comments are welcome and appreciated, I'm open to other suggestions if anyone would like to see some other figures, or I'm willing to drop this if folks want me to. Having been a statistician for much of my life, I love playing with this stuff. Your mileage may vary...

The number next to the team is that which, in combined Mets wins or losses by that team, clinches the Mets finishing above them. The number in parenthesis is how many games that team has to play.

Pre-games, Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Mets Magic Numbers (63 GL)
Atlanta 53 (64 GL)
Florida 52 (65)
Philadelphia 52 (66)
Washington 48 (63)

This next set is something else I like to play with. How impressive is the Mets' lead? The numbers below indicate what would happen if the Mets played just .500 ball the rest of the season (or one below for odd number games left), and what divisional opponents' best record could be, and STILL lose the division. Check this out...

Mets (99 gp + .500-1 g {31-32} = 90-72 final)

What opponents need to finish 89-73...
Atlanta 42-22 (.656 pct)
Philadelphia 45-21 (.682)
Florida 44-21 (.677)
Washington 46-17 (.730)

Perspective check - aside from Detroit (.677 - did I just write that?), the highest winning percentage in the major leagues right now is .612 (Red Sox; Mets are at .596).

Yes, I do have a lot of time on my hands these days...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 7:01 PM EDT reply actions

Ramirez

Ramirez must have shared notes with Pat Burrell.

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:14 PM EDT reply actions

And now Nevin!

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Screw this.

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Sheesh ...

Back to back HRs? C'mon Tommy, settle down, man.

by Max in NJ on Jul 25, 2006 7:14 PM EDT reply actions

this is ugly already

Yikes.

by kingcritical on Jul 25, 2006 7:14 PM EDT reply actions

Glavine taking ugly pills from Trax...

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 7:16 PM EDT reply actions

Hope we brought our bats tonite...

... and Zambrano's a bit rusty...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 7:18 PM EDT reply actions

Beltran Says Hello!

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:23 PM EDT reply actions

Hello!

Nice to get one back so quickly...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Flushing, New York.... HELLO !

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Way to go Beltran!

Don't be intimidated by Zambrano. You can beat him.

by Max in NJ on Jul 25, 2006 7:25 PM EDT reply actions

Now it's time for Dub to get nasty!

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay...

... 23-pitch first inning for Zambrano. Keep working those counts and get us into that squeezably-soft middle-inning bullpen...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 7:30 PM EDT reply actions

Dusty Baker don't believe in pitch counts

Yeah, Zambrano could throw 140 pitches before the night is over. I'm more worried about Tommy, who has been too hittable of late.

BTW, is it OK to worry about the Braves, or is that absurd at this point? I'm rooting hard for Florida this week, that's for sure.

Keep Maine in the rotation!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 25, 2006 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, it's okay...

... we're Mets fans, it's always okay to worry.

Besides, there are some teams in sports that can never lose enough for me. The Braves are one of 'em...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I agree ...

I always want the Braves to lose, and I won't feel comfy until they're mathematically eliminated. To paraphrase the munchkins about the Wicked Witch of the West, I want to make sure they're not only merely out of it, but really most sincerely out of it.

by Max in NJ on Jul 25, 2006 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

ENDY CHAVEZ!!!!

by kingcritical on Jul 25, 2006 7:43 PM EDT reply actions

number 10

Gary Cohen: "It just goes to show, you never know what you're going to see when you come to the ballpark."

I love it.

by kingcritical on Jul 25, 2006 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

No foolin'

Endy with a homer. Cedeno (the 8th batter) sacrificing. A Zambrano sucking at Shea.

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Endy the Wishnik comes through!

Woo hoo!

by Max in NJ on Jul 25, 2006 7:43 PM EDT reply actions

Annnnnnnd.....

Endy says hello!

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:43 PM EDT reply actions

N! D! N! D! N! D!

Gettin' to Zambrano. That's good.

Keep Maine in the rotation!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 25, 2006 7:45 PM EDT reply actions

And that was a right-handed batter

getting a hit off Zambrano. Not a good pitch. Good hitting by Lo Duca.

by Max in NJ on Jul 25, 2006 7:48 PM EDT reply actions

52 pitches!

The Mets are gonna get to see a ton of the Cub's pen tonight!

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:52 PM EDT reply actions

Big inning coming up, I think...

Back to the top of the order, Glavine needs to keep the momentum with a strong inning...

... much as a certain pitcher didn't do last night...

Gotta finish off Zambrano too, & get to that pen...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 7:53 PM EDT reply actions

JEEBUS....

... walking Pierre to lead off. Way to pitch with a lead, TommyBoy.

Is Oliver warming up yet?

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Glavine does not care what you think.

by IanB in MD on Jul 25, 2006 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Gary and Ron

Busting on the elder statesman Keith in the booth. Classic.

by kingcritical on Jul 25, 2006 7:55 PM EDT reply actions

How come Pierre can't get a helmet that fits?

Bad luck on the DP ball...

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 7:56 PM EDT reply actions

he wears his hat under his helmet

weird

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Jul 25, 2006 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope Glavine can pull himself

together. He doesn't look at all sharp tonight.

by Max in NJ on Jul 25, 2006 8:03 PM EDT reply actions

So much for that ...

by Max in NJ on Jul 25, 2006 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Ump was totally peeping LoDuca's foot,

didn't see the glove at all. Still the right call, but LoDuca almost pulled out another one.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 8:05 PM EDT reply actions

Tom Glavine, circa 2004.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 8:07 PM EDT reply actions

Now the question...

... Glavine bats sixth this inning; if they get there with guys on, do you hit for him? Pen has gotten a lot of work the last few days, but he's just terrible tonite...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 8:11 PM EDT reply actions

Moot Point...

...THAT'S the momentum inning we needed in the top half...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Pathetic

Well, they got to Zambrano, and yet they give it all back and then some, just like yesterday, to one of the worst hitting teams in baseball.

I'd be a lot less concerned with Atlanta if this team wasn't playing its 3rd straight pathetic-looking game.

Keep Maine in the rotation!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 25, 2006 8:17 PM EDT reply actions

Yay, Jose.

Baby steps.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 8:45 PM EDT reply actions

We're getting this win...

... they've been taking games like this all season. Glavine was crap, but at least he's kept them in it now. They'll hit...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions

balls are carrying now at shea

now its hot. Starters are wilting right now.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Jul 25, 2006 8:52 PM EDT reply actions

that sucked

Zambrano ball wouldn't even have gone to track under normal conditions.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Jul 25, 2006 8:55 PM EDT reply actions

Great at-bat Endy...

ain't done yet...c'mon, Julio.....

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 9:46 PM EDT reply actions

Why not Nady here

You need an Xtra base hit.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Jul 25, 2006 9:47 PM EDT reply actions

"Ryan Dempster is having a Calvin Schiraldi

moment..."

Line of the night...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 9:51 PM EDT reply actions

They made it interesting, but Glavine

was just too sucky today. Gotta shake this crud off. We've been like .500 I think ever since that phenominal road trip.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 9:58 PM EDT reply actions

Well...

... they had won eight of 10 before this skid. But it's the starting pitching that still worries me.

Oh well, new winning streak starts tomorrow...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep, If my count is correct, we're now 17-18

since sweeping Philly.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions

actually

if you take away the great start at the beginning of season and the great road trip, the team is just about .500. If I had to pick one guy who I have confidence will give you a decent outing right now it's John Maine. Let's see what happens tomorrow, but Glavine has been consistently bad for quite awhile. Even if Pedro comes back strong, we don't have a number 2 or 3 starter right now. It's nice to have a big lead, but you gotta win some 2-1 or 3-2 games. Can't remember too many of those lately

end the madness.stop the war

by elifriedman on Jul 25, 2006 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I get what you're saying, but I think it's

not fair to take away what they did up through that road trip. They sprinted out to a big lead, and that's great, but my fear is that, at least short term, they peaked with the historic numbers they put up on that trip, and have been a little bit on cruise control since then. It's been easy to not get too worried about any loss, or couple of losses, because of the huge lead we had built up, but that's only the case because of how sucky the rest of the division has been.

In a way I agree about Glavine. He's been doing it with smoke and mirrors since last year's all star game. I hope he's not sort of out of gas as he shoots for his 300th win (which, between us girls, I think is more important to him than winning a WS, but that's just me).

You could take it a little further and say that with Pedro's various injuries, we don't even have a number 1, or at least haven't for the past month.

All in all, I think we'd better get Zito, pronto.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty much agree with everything here...

Again, not looking a division championship in the mouth, but I don't see this current staff beating the Cardinals, and if they did I see them getting destroyed by the Soxes (Red and/or White).

I wouldn't mortgage the future for it, but you can never count on getting back to the post-season and I think Omar knows this starting crew is suspect right now.

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you Marlins

OK, so Florida's starting pitching actually hold the Braves solid offense in check (as opposed to the starting pitching that gives up 8 runs a game to the Cubs' popgun offense) and keeps the lead at 11.5. I am aware that the Marlins are 12 out, but I can't convince myself to be scared of Florida (not until next year, anyway). I am very much afraid of Atlanta and love the fact that the Mets are hitting the skids again just in time to head down to that hell-hole.

sigh.....

Keep Maine in the rotation!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 25, 2006 10:19 PM EDT reply actions

Well, as long as we're scoreboard watching,

our pal Julio just blew a save against Philly, giving up a bottom 9 homer to Utley.

"The Mets with the bases loaded: Chavez, great speed, Reyes, great speed, Lo Duca, good guy."

by Mr. Met on Jul 25, 2006 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Numbers update

Well, nobody commented on it above, but here's the update...

Post-games, Tuesday, July 25, 2006
Mets Magic Numbers (62 GL)
Atlanta 52 (63 GL)
Florida 52 (64)
Philadelphia 52 (66) * (in-progress)
Washington 48 (62)

Early game tomorrow, noon start...

Ya gotta believe, baby... BELIEVE!

by FlakyLefty45 on Jul 25, 2006 10:58 PM EDT reply actions