Diary: Trachsel will start

by pj on Sep 25, 2006 10:50 AM EDT

(moved from diaries. --eric)

There's been a lot of time wasted on Mets forums discussing Maine vs. Trachsel for a playoff start. It is clear to me that the real discussion should be the order in which we will see El Duque and Trachsel....or should I say Trachsel and El Duque. I am convinced that Trachsel will be named a starter and I think he will start game 3.

He believes he's earned it:

"Tryouts are for spring training. If 15 wins are not enough, I don't know what to tell you," said Trachsel, whose ERA nudged up a smidge to 4.97. "What else would I do? You're going to put somebody in the bullpen who's never pitched in the bullpen before? All possibilities exist, but I don't have any answers except that I'm a starting pitcher."

Willie believes that W/L record is meaningful;

Randolph seemingly concurs, adding that he doesn't "look at Steve Trachsel like he's auditioning for a spot. He's been one of our best pitchers this year ... and I don't look at it that every time he goes out there he's on trial. I know what Steve Trachsel can do."

I don't agree with Willie's assesment, but the reality is that Willlie makes the decisions. It also helps that Trachs is good buddies with Willie's boss Jeff Wilpon.

The good news is that the Mets lineup, for whatever reason, rises to the occasion when Trachs takes the hill. The run support is consistent enough to be meaningful. Perhaps the players are better rested during the long half inning when Trachs is laboring on the mound. Perhaps the other pitcher gets tight while sitting on the bench watching Trachsel fidget on the mound.

Steve's peripherals are awful and he sucks the life out of every game he enters, but the Mets have won 15 of those games and he pitched well in the clincher.

Prepare yourself for this reality: Steve Trachel is your Game 3 starter.

(Source = NY Daily News)

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wonderful

Here we go. The time of year when Willie's borderline retardation will kill the Mets. Over a 162 game schedule, the Mets are way to talented to be hurt by Willie's in-game idiocy like REPEATEDLY sending the stache up to bunt even though the guy CAN'T BUNT!!! (but he can hit doubles and homers, which I guess are less valuable than sacrifice bunts).

The idea that Trachsel's 15 wins reflect anything other than how strong the Mets lineup has been is absurd. Starting Trachsel over Maine or Hernandez is insane and could cost the Mets in a 5 or 7 game series. God forbid the Mets lose in the NLCS or World Series because Trachsel was allowed to start twice. If that happens I will be calling for Randolph's head on a platter.

/end rant

John Maine for Cy Young!

by Greenpoint Ian on Sep 25, 2006 11:54 AM EDT reply actions

be fair

its ricidulosly unfair and shortsighted to call Willie retarded. As far as Trax is concerned I think Maine should start and Trax should be watching from the bullpen. With that said, Willie has pushed so many right buttons this year(Valentin, Chavez, the aforementioned Maine) that he deserves the benefit of the doubt on this move. Lets just hope that if its game 4, that we can get a big start of out the Human Rain Delay.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win

by DoctorK16 on Sep 25, 2006 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions

where was the run support yesterday?

Trachsel started yesterday and the Mets couldn't score (save for 'Stache Power, of course).

I've weighed in on Trachsel already in this forum, and I have nothing to add in terms of what I think the Mets should do with him, but here is a new question that kinda blows my mind:

How can they be thinking of starting him ahead of El Duque?

If you want to talk about Proven Veterans, look no further than El Duque. Also, wasn't it Willie who earlier this year was referring to Trachsel as the "fifth starter" when Vic Zambrano was still in the rotation?

[Citizens Bank Park] is a paradise of cheap homeruns. -Gary Cohen

by kingcritical on Sep 25, 2006 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

yesterday

ND batted second, Green batted third, Woodward played 3b and Kelly Stinnett, accordng to cbs.sportsline, was still playing professional baseball.

Let's judge trax by his starts with the A-team backing him up.

I agree that "Trax sucks ballz", but I am not going to be shocked when he is announced as the pitcher for the the first road game either. Throw your stats and rational mind out the window. Willie is going with his gut and his guys. If maine gets a roster spot it will be for the bullpen.

Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Sep 25, 2006 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

good point re: yesterday's lineup

I think I was just frustrated because I was at the game and I expected the Mets to show a little more life against the Nats. The Mets did have a few good chances to score, but they couldn't seem to push a run across.

Regardless, my question is why would/should Trachs start before El Duque? Trachsel certainly is not more one of "Willie's guys" than El Duque. And El Duque is the more dominant pitcher. If Trachsel is a playoff starter, he clearly is no better than a number-four pitcher.

[Citizens Bank Park] is a paradise of cheap homeruns. -Gary Cohen

by kingcritical on Sep 25, 2006 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

sorry, but:

The good news is that the Mets lineup, for whatever reason, rises to the occasion when Trachs takes the hill. The run support is consistent enough to be meaningful.

This is complete and utter nonsense. It's nice that Trachsel has gotten so much run support, because the team has won games that he's put them in a position to lose. But inferring from his past starts that Trachsel has the ability to make the Mets hit better on the day he starts is pure, unadulterated magical thinking. He's gotten lucky. To start him, on the basis of his past luck, over a pitcher who has performed better, like Maine or El Duque, is the mark of an idiot. (Sorry, I mean a "veteran baseball man.")

I'm not panicking yet, because the Mets are a good team and have little need of a fourth starter, but this is far from the best use of the available resources and could easily cost the team a playoff game.

by anonymous on Sep 25, 2006 1:48 PM EDT reply actions

Trax

Look, the guy just knows how to win. Can't you see that?

</sarcasm>

by Eric Simon on Sep 25, 2006 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

He'a a "situational pitcher"

hahahahaha

"It's Father's Day today at Shea, so to all you fathers out there, Happy Birthday." -- Ralph Kiner

by dissento on Sep 26, 2006 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I really believe

that the team has a different mindset when he pitches. They know they're going to be playing from behind if they don't get a good start. If that qualifies as magic then so be it.

I don't think the run support that he got this year should be used to evaluate whether or not he is a good pitcher: he is not a good pitcher.

Hopefully he'll get matched up against Jason Marquis:

If you're looking for proof that shows how much wins are overrated, try this: Only six pitchers in the majors have more wins than the Cardinals' Jason Marquis. But to think that Marquis belongs is the same company as Justin Verlander or Curt Schilling or Mike Mussina is like thinking the NL has a chance to win the World Series. In other words, it's ridiculous.
Marquis has a 5.82 ERA, averages barely four strikeouts per nine innings and has allowed opponents to hit .287 against him. And that includes his good starts. Lately, there haven't been any of those. Marquis has totaled 12 1/3 innings in his past three starts while allowing 14 runs. He has been so inconsistent than even Tony La Russa, a manager who goes out of his way to protect his players from public criticism, is tired of defending him. After Marquis lasted just 2 2/3 innings in what ended as a 10-3 loss to the Reds Tuesday night, La Russa could only offer, "I don't know what he was thinking out there tonight."

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=115952

Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Sep 25, 2006 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

the problem with this theory

is that good run support doesn't correlate from year to year, which sort of confirms what we know implicitly, that is, that having your team score a lot of runs for you is not a skill but is just luck. to the extent that it seems to reflect a trend, it is coincidence. the year-to-year numbers confirm that, someone who leads the league in run support one year is just as likely to be middle of the pack or back further the next season.

Marquis is one of those guys who certainly has the stuff to be good. my rotation would be Pedro, Glavine, Duque, and Maine. I think Maine's makeup and pitching style limits big innings and he has more of a chance to give you an opportunity to win.

But if you start Trax and he falters, you can bring in Maine and (hopefully minimize the damage). If you start Maine, Trax has basically no role.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Sep 26, 2006 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

He really was horrible yesterday

From the Times:

The leadoff hitter reached base in five of six innings yesterday. Washington batted .444 (8 for 18) and could have scored more than three runs against him had it not grounded into two double plays and been caught stealing twice.

Trachsel probably has pitched one out of every two or three Mets games I've gone to over the past four years (or at least that's how it seems), but it was particularly painful to sit there yesterday. He's been consistently inconsistent this year.

[Citizens Bank Park] is a paradise of cheap homeruns. -Gary Cohen

by kingcritical on Sep 25, 2006 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

It's the innings

My big fear with Trax starting is that he may not pitch into the 6th. I think Pedro and Tom will at least get the Mets to the 7th, if not the 8th. With Trax on the mound, the pen needs to come up with four (playoff)innings. I don't like that.

On the other hand, Trax will be going up against a #3 pitcher. So the Mets may very well win the damn game 10-8. However, in the NLCS or WS, the match-up may not be as good.

by IanB in MD on Sep 25, 2006 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

why

would you think glavine or pedro could pitch to the seventh. pedros hurt and cant pitch 5? glavine is old maybe 6 and with the bullpen that deep wouldn't you want to take them out in the fifth or the 6th anyway to avoid injury and play them later in the series?

hojo the rabbit

by hojo on Sep 27, 2006 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

don't mind Trachsel starting

but not over El Duque-please no. Hopefully, the Mets survive to the World Series and they move him to #4 at best. At times, Trachsel is one of the worst pitchers that I have ever seen. His self-confidence in light of some miserable performances borders on arrogance.

That being said he pitched great in the 1998 play-in game and he was excellent in the division clincher this year. Willie is clearly playing a hunch that Trax is a good pressure pitcher. Keep your fingers crossed.

end the madness.stop the war

by elifriedman on Sep 25, 2006 4:51 PM EDT reply actions

Trax is pathetic.

Basically, Trax's argument for being a starter is first that he wins (due luck and great hitting) and then that he just doesn't like pitching out of the bullpen and then finally starts saying that he has never pitched out of the bullpen so you better make sure he doesn't have to.

I really enjoy the author refuting the 15 wins statement with the "ERA nudged up a smidge to 4.97" line.

The sad part is, Willie thinks a pitcher who is 7th worst in ERA, 2nd worst in WHIP, and 6th worst in BAA among all NL qualifiers (out of about 40) is one of our best pitchers this year.

When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Sep 25, 2006 5:41 PM EDT reply actions

baseball prospectus

has a formula to calculate expected wins (ew) and expected losses (el). trachsel should be 9-10 according to their calculations:

IP W L EW EL
76. Steve Trachsel 164.7 15 8 9.3 10.0

BP also calculates a stat called LUCK (LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)) which Trachsel has clearly been a beneficiary of. His LUCK value of 7.67 ranks high among pitchers.

for example:
Pitcher (W/L) LUCK
Randy Johnson (17-11) 8.92
Steve Trachsel (15-8) 7.67
Pedro Martinez (9-6) 0.46
Jaime Moyer (6-12) -6.12

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=99963

Pedro offers you his protection.

by pj on Sep 25, 2006 6:46 PM EDT reply actions