Wednesday Morning Mets Newsstand

by Eric Simon on Oct 17, 2007 12:53 AM EDT in Link Dump

There is very little in the way of real "news" related to the Mets right now. We know that they are probably waiting for Rudy Jaramillo's contract with the Rangers to expire at the end of the month and are reportedly interested in bringing him on board as hitting coach. In such a scenario, Howard Johnson would likely be moved back to the first base coaching box and Rickey Henderson would be relieved of his duties. GM Omar Minaya is an old friend of Jaramillo's from their days together in Texas. Some of you may recall that the Mets actually flirted with Jaramillo three years ago when they were trying to fill their managerial opening vacated by the ousted Art Howe. That job ultimately went to Willie Randolph and Jaramillo re-upped with the Rangers. The Mets would appear to be set at manager for the immediate future but Minaya still has designs on bringing Jaramillo eastward.

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Nate Silver revisits his 50 Most Valuable, a list he compiled for SI.com back in May. This is the proverbial "start your franchise" list of players who are likely to have the biggest impact on the game over the next half-dozen years or more. Silver has provided the framework for an updated list which includes two notable, high-ranking Mets:

2. David Wright (8)
10. Jose Reyes (7)

I'm a little surprised to see Reyes as high as #7 considering the disappearing act he pulled for much of last season's second half, but he is still just 24 and there is an awful lot to like about him. Hanley Ramirez was third, and likely would have been second if he weren't, as Keith Law intimated in his chat last night, the "worst defensive shortstop in baseball". About a year ago a lot of us were wondering what Wright's ceiling was. He was coming off a terrible second half following his prodigious All-Star Game homerun derby performance and it wasn't clear whether or not he would get his power stroke back. A year later he is an MVP candidate and one of the best players in the league. Like Reyes, Wright is just 24.

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Speaking of chats, Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus responded to the following question during Tuesday's chat:

Mike (Utica,NY): What do the Mets have to do to get better pitching? Do you think one of the trio of Millege, Martinez, and Gomez will be dealt? Who do you think is the NL MVP?
Steven Goldman: I suspect one of those three will go, but I'm not sure how much value they'll bring. Martinez is a heck of a prospect, but he's far away and had an injury year. Gomez is a pinch-runner. He's never going to hit well enough to play despite the fact that his legs make him capable of making the Kessel run in less than twelve parsecs. Milledge has promise, but the Mets need him, because they have to have other outfielders around Shawn Green.
I thought Wright was the MVP, but I'm pretty sure Holliday passed him with the voters.

Hard to argue with much here. 2007 was something of a lost year for Gomez, as he spent most of the year either injured or hitting poorly with the Mets. He had made some decent strides in 2006 in the Mets' minors but right now he doesn't look like much of a hitter. If the Mets can spin him into something useful (e.g. a starting pitcher) I think they would jump at the opportunity. I know I would.

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He's only 21, right?

Isn't it a bit presumptious to say that Gomez will be never hit at the big league level? It's not like he had a horrible year at AAA as a 21 year-old. He's not an advanced hitting prospect or anything like that, he's clearly a tools guys, but to say he will never hit at the big league level seems a bit too much. In fact, Gomez's ISoD was rather good in AAA in 2007.

Alexis Rios was a tools guy who posted 752 OPS in High-A ball as a 21 year-old. He probably won't be much of player either, I guess.

The Mets do a great job of torpedo-ing the value of their best prospects by rushing them so significantly. Milledge, Gomez and Pelfrey should all have a ton more value than they do. And the worst example of it is Fernando Martinez. Of course, it doesn't help that he doesn't stay healthy.

by Danny on Oct 17, 2007 8:10 AM EDT 0 recs

True

Gomez hit .281/.351/.423 as a 20-year-old in AA in 2006. Not exactly Justin Upton, but nothing to sneeze at considering his age. The Mets' collective hands were forced a bit this year after the injuries to Alou, Chavez and Milledge early in the season. He needs a solid year (or more) in AAA before the Mets should even consider bringing him up again.

Milledge will be fine. He hit a very respectable .272/.341/.446 in a pitcher's park in 2007 and I'm bullish on him moving forward.

Fernando Martinez has been whisked through the system and has actually held his own offensively at each stop (considering his age). He suffered some health-related setbacks this year but is still considered a terrific outfield prospect. I don't think the Mets have mis-handled him.

Mike Pelfrey was a very accomplished college pitcher who hasn't been impressive in what big league work he has had. I don't think the Mets are to blame for this, unless you are blaming Rick Peterson for switching him from the curveball to the slider. Pelfrey was given a few chances last season and mostly stunk it up. His upside is still an above-average major league starter or better and the Mets will give him every chance to make the team in spring training, assuming he hasn't been traded by then.

by Eric Simon on Oct 17, 2007 9:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

Fernando!

I love Milledge. I think he can be a fine everyday corner OF (though he profiles better defensively in left field). But Milledge had no value coming into the season and has black marks all over his resume. His perceived trade value by the pundits and other clubs, I don't see it as being commensurate with what his trade value should be. The Mets have to take a hit for that.

The Mets asked Pelfrey to learn a new offspeed pitch, and become a predominantly sinking fastball pitcher throwing to the knees. I have no problem with asking him to change from the typical power pitch approach. But have him do it in the minor leagues. They got greedy with Pelfrey and really hurt his development in my opinion. And because he struggled at the major league level so badly, his trade value is also not nearly proportional to his talent. Imagine if the Mets had left him in AAA for most of the year and let him dominate those hitters? They sent him back to AAA a tattered mess instead.

I will give the Mets a pass on Fernando, he was holding his own at Double-A despite playing through injuries, and it's really the injuries more than anything else that has submarined his trade value.

by Danny on Oct 17, 2007 11:12 AM EDT 0 recs

as we all know

the hits to Milledge's trade value were due to the Mets but the media for the most part so I'll give them a pass for that. However you're right on Pelfrey. It seems Omar rushes the guys so that the they can help out and fans/media see that and don't try to pressure him into making dumb trades, ala Phillips. It's much easier to trade the nobody at AA that's an abstraction than to deal a guy who who's helping the team from a media standpoint. Of course this can backfire and his with Milledge and Pelfrey IMO.

Keep Lastings Milledge Free

by DoctorK16 on Oct 17, 2007 1:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wow

McCann over BJ Upton? Even Chase Utley over Upton? He's already got as much power, more speed, and more plate discipline than both, and he's nearly 6 years younger than Utley.
If he's willing to put Wright at #2, Upton needs to be in the top 10.
And I can't believe he wants Jay Bruce more than Upton... I can't believe that at all.

And...
Upton is 3 years younger than Granderson and 2 younger than Sizemore... I mean... look at the stats and note games played.

Man, you can even compare his numbers at age 19 to his brother's and they beat them.

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Oct 17, 2007 1:06 PM EDT 0 recs

Position

Utley and McCann both play premium defensive positions; Upton is likely bound for a corner outfield spot. If he winds up in center his value will be higher, but it's far easier to find an .850-.900 OPS bat in the corner outfield than it is at second or catcher.

I think Nate may have overlooked B.J. Upton, but I don't think he is more valuable over the next six years than Utley (or even Sizemore).

by Eric Simon on Oct 17, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up 0 recs

six years

That six-year window does some odd things to the player-value calculation. It forces you to slightly discount guys who are still very young because they might reach peak value in the seventh year, even though this is a situation that any sane team would be happy to deal with by pre-emptively locking up a player with a long-term deal.

by anonymous on Oct 17, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up 0 recs