Open Thread - Game 103: Mets vs. Nationals (07/28/2007) on SNY

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 12:24 PM EDT

Tale of the tape:

	Hernandez	Redding
ERA	3.14	2.92
FIP	4.52	4.94
K/9	7.12	1.82
BB/9	3.61	2.92
K/BB	1.97	0.63
HR/9	1.11	0.73
WHIP	1.12	1.22
GB/FB	0.90	0.83
BABIP	.227	.237
eBABIP	.239	.330

Que se dillio:

Nothing. Too early. Need sleepy.

The other side of the tracks:

Check out Federal Baseball for discussion of this game from the point-of-view of the opponent.

Follow the game online:

- FanGraphs.com
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Comments

Tim Redding

He looked good in the 1st inning. Geez, sometimes I think the Mets could clobber the 1963 Dodgers rotation, but would get swept playing the 1996 Tigers.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

give them once around the order

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Redding has been good lately

wouldn't say that Mets line-up right now instills any fear in their opponents.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Mets bats

yeah except that they've averaging 6+ runs a game since they left on the last road trip

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

for the record

I'm not complaining about the Mets recent offensive output, but just the fact that they can clobber good pitchers like Snell and Gorzelanny, and then do nothing against Mike Bascik (sp?)

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I know :)

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

on the other hand

Hernandez isn't Jorge Sosa, which is good.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

4 of first 5 K

from a pitcher who doesn't strike anybody out. At least Lastings made contact. Pathetic

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 12:39 PM EDT reply actions

it's the second inning

Perspective, just like people with struggling for ice and power in Iraq

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

hello Mr. Sunshine

I forgot that everything is coming up roses and Reyes' OBP is dropping steadily. More walks and less pop-ups please

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

well considering the last popup

went 400+ feet I can live with that. Sunshine is good for you. Look at that sweet dp they just turned.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

it was an out

wasn't it. Not the stadium for fly balls.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

10 feet to the right

it's a run scoring double

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

it's baseball

not horseshoes. almost doesn't count. you love statistics and I like to watch. In the stats, Reyes' long drive is an out

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

true

but some outs are better than others.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

yes that's true

like a sacrifice fly or an out that moves a runner to third with less than two outs. Reyes' long fly was not productive.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

he worked the count

and hit the ball hard as hell, these are people out there you know

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Green 8th against the righty now.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions

Reyes just missed that one

dammit

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 12:54 PM EDT reply actions

Bleh

Tim Redding? Really?

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

Rochester's finest

If it was Brad Penny, they'd be destroying him.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

beautiful double play

Reyes should get Gold Glove this year. He's been nearly flawless in the field. Same for Beltran.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:01 PM EDT reply actions

Wright can't seem

to get a real long hot streak going.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

Wright has been fine

He's hitting just as well as he did last season, and has been the most consistent bat in the Mets lineup. Not everyone is built to go on Vladimir Guerrero-esque hot streaks.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

the full Sunshine Brigade

is out today. I never said that Wright is bad. I was echoing something said by Keith, Gary and Ron all year.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

you're looking for dark lining in the silver cloud

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Wright. He's one of the few guys in the lineup you can say that about. God forbid he not have a hit for 2 nights in a row.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely nothing wrong

what are you his priest.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Jesus Christ

If this is your attitude about a 1st place team on pace for 90+ wins, I'm really glad this blog wasn't here in 2003 and 2004.

And yes, I am David's priest. He's in my Coptic congregation at St. Mary's on Woodward Ave. in Ridgewood.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

you might not like my attitude or my perspective

but you can't prove I'm wrong.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Holy Shit

Trixie is the great aunt of Tim Redding. I might have to root for the Nationals today

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

To the Moon Marlon

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

It takes A Milledge

Off a curve ball too

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

Thrilledge!

Man oh man, is he just what this team needs.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

stats shown on SNY. Beltran is 2 for fucking 45. Unbelievable. True for most of their hitters. It aint just luck. Keith is saying it's not just luck. I trust him on this. He believes there is such a thing as a clutch hitter

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

no its luck

Keith sounds like Joe Morgan. These are the fucking hitters. Beltran go home after the season and forget to hit in the clutch? Reyes? Delgado been an RBI guy for 10 years? PLD? It's a small random sample, with zero correlation to nothing. We tend to call that luck, or chance.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

so Joe Morgan a hall of famer

and Keith Hernandez an almost hall of famer are wrong and I should listen to you.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

listen to common sense and reason

just because guys are good at playing baseball doesn't mean they're good ad analyze it. I go to the bathroom several times a day but it doesn't make me a kidney and bladder expert. Explain to me why Beltran isn't hitting in the clutch this year when he hit in it all year last year.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

it could be many reasons

not seeing as many good pitches because guys behind him haven't been as good. That then cascades thru the line up. Maybe he's having trouble with his wife. How the hell do I know. But my lies aren't lying and neither does that 4-25 stat.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

4-25

Nobody is going to argue that Beltran (and many of the Mets) have been terrible in these situations this year. But going 4-25 in clutch situations shouldn't be enough to convince you that Beltran is a lousy clutch hitter any more than me flipping a coin to "heads" 15 times out of 20 should convince you that I'm an absurdly good coin-flipper.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

No

You should believe what you want to believe. Just know that empirical evidence doesn't agree with Keith and Joe (or you, apparently). With very few exceptions and over a large enough number of at-bats, almost every hitter's performance in "clutch" situations is a direct reflection of how he does in all situations.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

so what's large enough sample

2/3 of a season isn't enough. The empirical evidence is obvious. By experience the Mets are not hitting in clutch this year as well as last.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

45 abs

is a blip when a typical season includes 600 abs

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Sample size

2/3 of a season isn't that long. Even a full season can have plenty of noise. That's why you have seasons that are absurdly out of character, like Brady Anderson's 50-homer season, etc.

This year the Mets are 14th in the NL with RISP and 2 outs, .677 OPS. Last season they were 4th, .778 OPS. Your assertion that they weren't good last year appears to be incorrect, and illustrates the biggest problem with using anecdotal evidence instead of empirical evidence to support an argument.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

first I never said

that they were bad in such situations last year. I said they were not good this year. Second, I watch all the games and see the batters hit with runners in scoring position, ergo, I am using empirical date because I gained the data by using my sense of sight. If my brother told me that Beltan sucked with RISP that would be anecdotal.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

uhh

By experience the Mets are not hitting in clutch this year as well as last.

Your words, not mine. You'll accept my reservations that your memory of the past nine-hundred innings of baseball are as clear as a column of empirical data representing same. You have your methods, I'll stick with mine.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Mets Trade Rumors

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/07/latest-mets-rum.html

Talkin' Sports

by BlackOps on Jul 28, 2007 1:30 PM EDT reply actions

Yea

Nothing terribly new or interesting there.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I would give up

Pelfrey for Cordero

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Reyes CS

That hurt a lot. As did Delgado fishing for that low fastball.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

Yea

Reyes is just 20 for his last 29 stolen base attempts; might as well just stay on first.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

I've noticed that his SB% is dropping. Henderson needs to work with him on that.

Wright, on the other hand, has been fantastic in his SB attempts this season.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

how do you know it's not just luck

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

which one?

Wright or Reyes?

I've never looked at ant studies about what leads to high SB%, but I assume it has a lot to do with correctly reading a pitcher to get a good jump.

Certainly, it's not like the avalanche of evidence that batting average and "clutch" hitting are more a function of luck than anything else.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

took a perfect throw to get him

he should continue to be aggressive. You don't know that Gotay gets that hit if Reyes stays at first unless you believe in the theory of predetermined outcome.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

First

I'm not talking about that situation in particular. The point is that by getting thrown out nine times in 29 attempts that he is costing the Mets more with the CS than he is contributing with the SB. He is better off sticking with the single if he is going to get thrown out that often.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

that's ridiculous

what makes you presume he will continue to get thrown out at the same rate. Perhaps he will revert to the mean which is a much higher percentage. You have a much greater chance scoring from 2nd than you do from 1st. Keep on running Jose!

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not

I don't assume he will continue to get thrown out at that rate. If he *were* to get thrown out at that rate, he would be better off, overall and with the benefit of a time machine, if he didn't attempt a single steal, all things considered.

I agree: The likelihood of scoring a run with a man on second is greater than that of a man on first. No arguments here.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

using empirical data

the Mets stink right now. How do you explain all these strikeouts for Trixie's relative

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

Stinky

Some runs would be nice.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

take care guys

off to see the Brooklyn Cyclones and the Mets of the future. Check out all the young future clutch hitter. Enjoy the rest of the game.

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

Hah

What a douche ;-)

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Douche?

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought you were leaving?

Anyway, Hernandez was fantastic today. Let's get him some runs right here so he can get the win.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Eric

what did you mean

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

eric

I believe you called me a douche. I consider that a personal attack.Somehow you thought you were doing it behind my back which is a weird thought on a blog. Please let me know if I'm wrong, but right now I'm very disappointed

Save America. Impeach Bush

by elifriedman on Jul 28, 2007 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm just playing around

You took a "last word" jab by saying that you were going to see the Mets' future clutch hitters. I called you a douche, and followed that with a winking emoticon, implying that everything is cool despite often contentious discussions that take place here.

That's all. If you were disappointed or offended then I apologize. My remark wasn't meant to be taken seriously.

by Eric Simon on Jul 28, 2007 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Jose, Jose, Jose

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

Ruben! Ruben! Ruben!

Great AB working the count.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Good ab by Gotay

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

he gets rewarded

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

finally!

Bats are coming through. Let's blow this wide open and keep Wagner and Heilman fresh for tonight.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 2:21 PM EDT reply actions

Wright

Brutal job by Wright, that was a contact play I bet, make them throw you out at home.

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

Castro 1st pitch swinging

Wasn't the best move either. Oh well, they have the lead, which is what really matters.

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice to see Heilman back

its a ground ball...trickling... its a fair ball, its by Buckner, rounding third Knight, the Mets will win the ballgame, the Mets win!!!

by DoctorK16 on Jul 28, 2007 2:29 PM EDT reply actions

Heilman is money

You know what the best part about that is? Douchewagon hasn't been here in forever (although Pelfrey is starting tonight, thank God I won't be around for it).

Free Ramon Castro!

by Greenpoint Ian on Jul 28, 2007 2:30 PM EDT reply actions