Baseball Prospectus Projected Standings

by Greenpoint Ian on Feb 16, 2008 3:51 PM EST Comment 8 comments

(promoted from diaries --eric)

Baseball Prospectus' projected standings for 2008 are out (based on PECOTA). The NL East looks like this:

New York 96-66
Atlanta 86-76
Philadelphia 84-78
Florida 76-86
Washington 72-90

So BP expects the Mets to have the best record in the NL and the biggest margin of victory in the NL. For those of you that care, Atlanta wouldn't even win the wild card under the BP standings scenario, as the Cubs are expected to win 89 games, and the Brewers 87.

This just makes me more excited for the season to begin.

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PECOTA Standings

Interesting stuff, I wonder what the PECOTA standings would have looked like prior to the Santana trade.

In any event, I find it hard to believe that the Mets will take this division by a 10 game margin. Baseball people are severely underestimating how good the Atlanta Braves will be this year if (and this is a big if), key personnel manages to stay healthy. If that is the case, I think we have a dogfight on our hands that will last to the final week of the season.

Chris Iafolla http://heardinthecheapseats.com/

by Chris Iafolla on Feb 17, 2008 12:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How accurate is BP?

For instance, how did BP's projections hold up in '06 and '07? Is this info something you need a subscription to get?

by madisonmetsfan on Feb 17, 2008 2:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you need a subscription

I get the $19.95 yearly subscription in order to look at PECOTA forecasts for fantasy draft purposes.

Anyway, it's not perfect (what projection system is?), but it's uncannily accurate sometimes. For instance, last year, it projected a 72-90 finish for the White Sox after back-to-back 90+ win seasons. A whole lot of media types in Chicago howled about that.

How did the White Sox fare? 72-90.

On the other hand, it picked the 2006 Tigers to go 79-83.

Either way, I think it's a lot better than the gut instinct of a lot of media types out there (like the genius "NL executive" who said that the Phillies have the "gamer quotient" advantage over the Mets).

Flushing, Queens: soon to be known as Johan's-burg!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Feb 17, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes

what people don't get is that BP is not claiming "THIS IS HOW THE SEASON WILL TURN OUT." it's simply a prediction, and one based on empirical data, not steve phillips' mood that particular day. why this is so above people i don't know.

by gogomets on Feb 17, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Prediction...

Isn't a prediction a guess on how the season will turn out? While they might no be saying: "this is how the season will turn out," they sure as hell are saying "the data says this is how the season will turn out."

Sometimes, it helps to take into account some of the subjective things that end up deciding a 162 game season. We then might find that the Mets will not win this division by 10 games, it will be far more competitive than that.

Chris Iafolla http://heardinthecheapseats.com/

by Chris Iafolla on Feb 17, 2008 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i'd

suggest reading up on what goes into all of this. there's a lot more factors than you think. it's just annoying that people are offended at BP's projections, yet don't care when some idiot anchor/writer makes a prediction based on a whim.

by gogomets on Feb 17, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I Hear You

I've done the reading and I know there is a significant amount of research and empirical data that goes into the predictions. At least all those people making predictions on a whim give us something to talk about.

Chris Iafolla http://heardinthecheapseats.com/

by Chris Iafolla on Feb 17, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs