The Flukies

by Eric Simon on Feb 20, 2008 1:00 AM EST

I draw inspiration for my writing from different places. Oftentimes, people -- famous or otherwise -- lead me to new ideas. Other times it's a book or movie that broadens my worldview. Still other times I find that thoughts just sprout up full grown within the organic mulch otherwise known as my underdeveloped brain matter. Usually I just swipe 'em from elsewhere and credit where appropriate.

Today I was inspired by Grant's post at McCovey Chronicles which looked at the individual fluke performances for Giants teams over the past decade or so. We all know fluke seasons when we see them. It's not always easy to recognize them at the time; sometimes a fluke is really just a leap, as a player establishes a new level of production rather than a single exceptional season out of line with the rest of that player's career. If the season occurs prior to or in the midst of a player's prime, it could still be a stepping stone on the path to becoming a better player. If the season occurs towards the tail end of a player's career, or is so uncharacteristically good compared to a young player's minor league performance, it could very well be a fluke.

Butch Huskey | OPS+: 114 | Career OPS+: 96
Good minor league player who never amounted to much in the big leagues. Had a first-baseman's body but his bat was never equal to the task.
Brian McRae | OPS+: 116 | Career OPS+: 92
Came to the Mets with Turk Wendell in the Lance Johnson deal with the Cubs. McRae had one or two decent seasons aside from this one, but 1998 was clearly his best. His dad went nuts and threw a phone that one time. That I know of.
Benny Agbayani | OPS+: 124 | Career OPS+: 107
1999 and 2000 were great years for Benny. The two lasting memories of him as a Met are his game-winning homerun in the 2000 LDS and when he gave the ball to a kid in the stands after catching the second out of an inning. Classic Agbayani. Has an autobiography.
Todd Pratt | OPS+ 115 | Career OPS+: 94
Nicknamed "Tank", which is awesome irrespective of his baseball accomplishments. Won the 1999 LDS with an extra-inning homerun. Turned the only walk-off grand slam in postseason history into a single. Once managed a pizza joint.
Desi Relaford | OPS+: 118 | Career OPS+: 73
Awesome for one year, traded for Shawn Estes.
Ty Wigginton | OPS+: 132 | Career OPS+: 102
My wife and I were at the first game Wiggie ever played with the Mets. My boss would get tickets just to the right of the Mets' dugout, so we were practically in the photo box while Wigginton was making some warm-up tosses. Kim told me to take a few pictures so if he ever turned into a big star we could say we were on his bandwagon from the very beginning. Those pictures are sitting in a box somewhere waiting for Wiggie to take care of his half of the bargain.
Jason Phillips | OPS+: 115 | Career OPS+: 80
The goggles were awesome, and were the inspiration for MetsGeek's logo.
Eric Valent | OPS+: 110 | Career OPS+: 81
Hit for the cycle. Eric "I Gave Up Meat" Valent is still one of the best Berman-isms of all time. Berman has also been known to go nuts on occasion.

I tried to pick guys with at least a couple hundred plate appearances, and I think most of these guys crossed that threshold. I didn't really have anybody beyond 2004, though maybe we can revisit this list in a couple of years to see if any of the more recent seasons qualify as flukes in retrospect.

Any personal nominees for this list?

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Comments

Gilkey

I was surprised to see Bernard absent from the list.

If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric @ Amazin' Avenue on Feb 20, 2008 7:07 AM EST reply actions

That was the first thing I thought of too....

For that matter, couldn't you list Lance Johnson? Obviously, he was no slouch over his career but his one season with the Mets was just OUTRAGEOUS.

Of course, after this season, we might be able to add Ollie Perez....

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 20, 2008 9:00 AM EST up reply actions

Gilkey

Gilkey and One-Dog both had their career years in 1996; I started with 1997. If people like this enough I can go back even further.

by Eric Simon on Feb 20, 2008 9:34 AM EST up reply actions

Answer:

I would give that a resounding "Yes!"

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 20, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

hmm.

2000 probably deserves at least a mention of Edgardo Alfonzo. He was pretty good for a couple of other years, but that was the only season when his supposed potential really materialized.

by anonymous on Feb 20, 2008 11:24 AM EST reply actions

Alfonzo

He might have had a short prime but he wasn't exactly a one-hit wonder.... I think a lot of Mets fans will disagree with you there.

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 20, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

maybe not the same kind of fluke

Of course, I wouldn't call Fonzie a one-hit wonder. If a replacement-level player having a single good season is one kind of fluke, then a much-touted but never much more than decent player having a single superstar season is another.

by anonymous on Feb 20, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

Never much more than decent?

Granted, his 2000 was some 20 points of OPS+ higher than a few of his other seasons but, compared to position scarcity, his 120+ OPS+ seasons would have be considered more than just decent.

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 20, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

Fonzie's years

In 1997, Fonzie had an OPS+ of 119
In 1998, 106
In 1999, 125
In 2000, 147
In 2002, 127

2000 was certainly his best year (as it would be for most players--by WARP3, Fonzie's 2000 is the second best year a Met position player has ever had, behind Wright's performance last year), but I would hardly call it a fluke. Had he not injured his back, Alfonzo might have made it to the Hall of Fame.

Also, keep in mind that those years came as either a 2B or 3B (back before 3B held the wealth of riches it does these days). He was a hell of a hitter in more than just the one year.

by jalsonmi on Feb 20, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

plus

there is a plausible explanation for Fonzie decline after 2000, his back injury. Its quite possible that that year represented his true level of ability.

Keep Lastings Milledge Free

by DoctorK16 on Feb 20, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions

Also

There is a very strong possibility that Fonzie was a wee bit older than he let on.

by Eric Simon on Feb 20, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

Looking further back...

Gilkey. Career OPS+ 109, 1996 OPS+ 155. As mentioned, could also be Lance Johnson and the like 74 triples he had that year.
Doug Henry. I don't even remember him, but in 67 innings out of the bullpen in 1995 he had an ERA+ of 137; career ERA+ 103.
Josias Manzanillo. 1994 ERA+ (47.3 IP): 157. Career ERA+: 93
Ummm... nobody? 1993 was a pretty miserable year all around. If I had to pick someone, Eric Hillman was a pretty average pitcher over 22 starts (102 ERA+) that year but crappy the year before and the year after and then he retired. So I guess being league average for a year is fluky.
Daryl Boston. 1992 OPS+ 117 (though comparable to his 1991 performance), career OPS+ 95. Not a great example but 1992 mainly saw good players playing well (Murray, Magadan, Bonilla, Fernandez, Cone) and bad players playing poorly (Hundley before his prime, Randolph after his, Schofield, Schourek, Young).

by Josh @ Amazin' Avenue on Feb 20, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions

Flukes

I kinda disagree with your methods here, Eric. A fluke season--to me at least--occurs when a player radically outperforms his 2nd best season, not his career averages. Career averages are brought down by decline phases, particularly among average platoon or everyday players.

Huskey's difference in OPS+ between his career average and his 1997 season is 18%. That's not out of the ordinary. Carlos Beltran's difference between his 2006 season and his career average is 34%. The difference between 2006 and his next best season is 18%. For Huskey, the difference is half that.

Butch Huskey's 1997 wasn't really a fluke year; it was a career year, a peak season more or less in line with an average growth curve. His peak was really 1996-1999 or so, when he put up OPS+'s of 101, 114, 85, and 107. The outlier season was 1998, when Huskey played through a hamstring injury for much of the season.

Bill James devised a method for identifying fluke seasons. It'll take a little work to get everything in order, but I'll try and apply the method to Mets players. I can say that the greatest fluke season by anyone in a Mets uniform occurred in 1985, by Mr. Dwight Gooden. Gooden was very talented, but in 1985 everything came together perfectly for him, as he put up an ERA+ of 228(!). His next best season was 126. His career number was 111.

According to James's list from 2000, that ranks as the seventh biggest fluke season in MLB history.

by Alex Nelson on Feb 20, 2008 2:24 PM EST reply actions