Amazin' Avenue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Backing the Pack for NC State Fans!


Community Projection: Johan Santana

You might have noticed all of the hullabaloo last week when the Mets did something or other. It wasn't because they came to terms on a one-year deal with lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano, though that's certainly good news. The principals in a trade for Johan Santana were agreed upon last Tuesday afternoon, though it took three-plus days of contract negotiations and a physical exam to set everything into stone. Santana's a Met, and it's easy to get carried away with projections for him upon his arrival at Shea and his ensuing battles with the weaker lineups of the National League.

Here we go, then. Punxsutawney Phil showed us what's what on Saturday, but now it's time for us to put on our prognosticating hats and take a stab at predicting Santana's performance in 2008. Here's what he has done over the past three seasons with the Twins.

Year GS IP H BB K HR W L ERA
2005 33 231.2 180 45 238 22 16 7 2.87
2006 34 233.2 186 47 245 24 19 6 2.77
2007 33 219.0 183 52 235 33 15 13 3.33

We will project Sir Johan in the following categories:

  1. Games started
  2. Innings pitched
  3. Hits
  4. Walks
  5. Strikeouts
  6. Homeruns allowed
  7. Wins
  8. Losses
  9. ERA
And the customary disclaimer:

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

20,140,130,45,135,16,10,6,3.50

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end.

And... go!

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Santana
34,205,170,50,255,19,21,9,2.65

Being in the NL will lower his IP, ERA, H, and HR, but will increase his W's.

If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric on Feb 5, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Santana
34,225,176,65,241,21,20,5,2.68

I'm thinking the opposite, in a certain fashion.  I think Willie is going to ride Santana as much as possible to save the pen a little.  Increase in IP.  Slight increase in BB (walking hitters intentionally to get to the pitcher), and a Cy Young type season other than that.

by Lunkwill Fook on Feb 5, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cy-tana
34,232,168,47,251,23,20,7,2.58
"I got my pregnant wife (the Yankee fan) with me. Hoping my kid learns to kick her everytime the Mets score." -Schifftis-

by future on Feb 5, 2008 10:53 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Santana
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

34,228,168,51,239,22,21,8,2.75

Let's Go Mets!

by twassel on Feb 5, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Johan
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

33,221,170,44,230,23,20,5,2.45

by whynot on Feb 5, 2008 12:02 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Johan is the man?
33,225,183,50,233,22,19,6,2.78

by Manhasset Paulie on Feb 5, 2008 12:35 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Projections
33,228,172,50,285,26,18,7,2.42

by dkresh on Feb 5, 2008 12:52 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

JOHAN!
34,225,179,50,239,25,21,4,2.80
We've got ourselves a ball club, the Mets of New York town!

by kingcritical on Feb 5, 2008 12:56 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very interesting
Of the 8 projections, no body has him winning less than 18 games, and 6 of us have him winning 20 or more. Are we expecting too much out of this guy?
If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric on Feb 5, 2008 1:17 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Santana-dana
GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
27,180,165,43,200,20,15,6,2.97

vr, Xei

Baseball, it is what it is.

by Xeifrank on Feb 5, 2008 1:21 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A modest prediction (and first post)
33, 225, 180, 55, 225, 25, 15, 8, 3.01

by Trotsky on Feb 5, 2008 2:15 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
31,202,170,42,K,251,19,7,2.99

by JohnP on Feb 5, 2008 3:01 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

whoops, make that
31,202,170,42,251,19,19,7,2.99

ignore my last post

by JohnP on Feb 5, 2008 3:02 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Santana
31,196,180,50,225,25,18,7,2.91

by sincethebeginning on Feb 5, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sucktana
0-4,9.54, blows out elbow by May.

by NYChokers on Feb 5, 2008 3:57 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Broham Santana
34,210,180,45,240,25,18,5,3.15

by kendynamo on Feb 5, 2008 5:27 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
33,218,167,48,249,24,21,6,2.69
Flushing, Queens: soon to be known as Johan's-burg!!!

by Greenpoint Ian on Feb 5, 2008 5:34 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I almost match his 3 year averages
31,228.3,185,51,245,14,21,7,2.83
When asked why I was a Mets fan, I responded, "pain is my lifeblood."

by wrightHOF on Feb 5, 2008 6:52 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

santastic
i predict a riot.
I.M. Forme

by itsmetsforme on Feb 5, 2008 11:38 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Strahan will sodmoize Santana's anus
Get ready to be fucked by Smoltz you fags.

by NYChokers on Feb 6, 2008 1:27 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ha ha!
Sounds like somebody is jealous. perhaps you would like a visit from Strahan.
If you gonna act like a fool, I'm gonna treat you like a fool....Fool ~Judge Greg T. Mathis~

by sireric on Feb 6, 2008 6:44 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

what great burg do you hail from
we should call the authorities there and tell them to annul your mom incestuous marriage
Keep Lastings Milledge Free

by DoctorK16 on Feb 6, 2008 7:43 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

michael strahan is a great man
and a true champion.  he can sodomize my anus any day.  

by kendynamo on Feb 6, 2008 10:27 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Season for the ages
34,220,190,40,220,15,21,7,1.99
Keep Lastings Milledge Free

by DoctorK16 on Feb 6, 2008 7:42 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

AL to NL effect.
33,228,177,42,255,25,22,5,2.37

Johan will enjoy pitching to other pitchers instead of DHs.

BTW, I saw somewhere that he hit appx. .250 in interleague play.  Always nice to have a pitcher who can swing the bat a little.

by madisonmetsfan on Feb 6, 2008 9:19 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pinch hitters
34,224,187,50,237,23,20,7,2.83

by vonhayes on Feb 6, 2008 9:26 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
32,220,175,40,250,20,21,5,2.40
.318/.379/.591
.299/.362/.543
.304/.396/.474
.317/.363/.517
.289/.375/.478
.288/.387/.474
.305/.385/.479
.278/.339/.399
Pick your poison

by BlackOps on Feb 7, 2008 2:42 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA
33,205,178,44,220,28,18,6,2.88

by citimetro on Feb 7, 2008 3:22 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Start posting about the Mets »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Aaavatar_small
When Fernando Met Wilmer
Hobodan_small
Looking for Local Recommendations
Me_at_att_park_small
A Lighthearted Interview with Brooklyn Cyclone Joey August

Recent FanPosts

Stlouiscardinals_small
Why is Jon Niese still in the minors?
Aaavatar_small
Mets Community Prospect List: #10
Images-1_small
David Wright: Behind the Blow
Aaavatar_small
Mets Community Prospect List: #9
Small
How would you grade the Mets?
Aaavatar_small
Mets Community Prospect List: #8
Aaavatar_small
Mets Community Prospect List: #7
Aaavatar_small
Mets Community Prospect List: #6 RUNOFF!
Aaavatar_small
Mets Community Prospect List: #6
Images-1_small
Promotion Time?

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

I was inspired by Eric's comment that Olerud had the best 3-year run as a Met outside Carlos Beltran to look at a few different Mets, and when I noticed that two of my all-time favorite players (Alfonzo and Strawberry) were kinda screwed by having (relatively)bad seasons in between some really good seasons, I decided to see which Mets had the best 3 seasons, period (non-consecutively). Beltran still comes out on top, but my all-time favorite player Alfonzo comes in 2nd place, and him and Straw are the only two to have three 6.0+ WAR seasons. Also interesting that Hundley comes out ahead of Gary Carter, Cleon Jones almost finishes ahead of Mike Piazza, and Joe McEwing doesn't make the list.

Recent FanShots

F! Out with knee pain
Go get Matt Herges; DFA'd by Cleveland
Johan Santana: Master of Tomfoolery
Zach Lutz Heating Up?
Thole, Mejia Updates from Oliveras
Matt and Ted's Excellent Adventure
Project Prospect Updated Top 50
Fangraphs Profiles Jenrry Mejia
Edes: Mets Might Be On A Road To Nowhere
Josh Thole Drop of Sunshine

Post_icon New FanShot All FanShots Carrot-mini

Sponsors


THE BIG GUY

Aa_avatar_small Eric Simon

THE INCREDIBLES

Sheff_doc_small Sam Page

Best_infield_ever_small JamesK

THE NEWS GURU

Wrightfront_small Joe Budd

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports