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Fifth Starter Blues

Ugh, now what? Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey both had their respective fifth-starter asses handed to them by the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon, further distorting what was already a slowly-developing potato sack race for the last spot in the rotation.

El Duque made his first start of the spring and, after throwing in the mid-seventies during a simulated game last week, was apparently rocking the mid-eighties this time around. Though pretty fast for a jalopy, 85 isn't enough mustard to get the ball by established major leaguers like opposing starting pitcher Todd Wellemeyer (1-for-2 on the day). All told, Hernandez allowed five runs on four hits in just three innings, striking out one and walking two.

Thankfully, I didn't see any of the game when it was on, as I was amidst a marathon five-hour Resident Evil 4 session on Wii. I went back and watched some of it on MLB.tv later on and was surprised to see El Duque look even worse than his pitching line would have you believe. Despite a sweet "Mirror, Mirror" goatee*, El Duque had very spotty control of most of his repertoire and featured a fastball that was noticeably devoid of life.

*Perhaps fitting, as this crappy El Duque must be from a diametrically opposing universe from the real (read: good) El Duque. We'll know for sure if this one stays healthy all year.

I'll concede that we should cut Hernandez some slack; having pitched using his customary stork-kick for so many years, many of them under the iron fist of Ramon Fidel Castro, there is unquestionably an adjustment period as he acclimates himself to pitching like everyone else. Radar gun flakiness notwithstanding, his fastball was reportedly ten clicks quicker on Sunday than it was last week, so given another three weeks it doesn't seem so unreasonable that he could ramp it up to the low-nineties by then. Given the assorted off-days in early April -- scheduled and otherwise -- the Mets won't need a true fifth starter until the middle of the month, so that gives El Duque a bit of leeway as he continues to get himself into playing shape.

El Duque wasn't alone in his brutal suckitude yesterday. Mike Pelfrey, who is also competing for that last rotation spot, was so much worse than El Duque yesterday as to make the Cuban's outing seem decent by comparison. Pelfrey allowed eight runs, all earned, on 13 hits in just 4.1 innings, a bit-spitting of biblical proportions. When Pelfrey struggles it is usually because he can't keep his fastball down, and this game was no exception, as his "sinker" would consistently drift up in the zone. I wrote about this last week, but Pelfrey will continue to fail at this level if he can't induce more groundballs. Sunday was more of the same, as Pelfrey recorded just four outs on the ground, just half of his flyball out total. That ratio needs to be flipped for Pelfrey to be successful.

I'm not the sort of fan/writer/basement dweller to throw around tired baseball platitudes like "step up his game", but Pelfrey has to be kicking himself for letting a golden opportunity to win a starting job with this team slip away. El Duque is a mess right now, and this was the perfect time for Pelfrey to "step up his game" and win the last starter spot out of spring training. Even a decent spring -- 3.50 ERA with so-so peripherals -- would have done it. But, much like intelligent design, that hasn't exactly happened. Pelfrey has an ERA of 8.31 in 17.1 innings and a lousy 6-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's called "not getting the job done", whether you're from the new school or the old school.

To make matters worse, the Mets don't even have a passable Plan C. They've got Tony Armas in Triple-A, but he just arrived in the states last week after sorting out some visa issues, so he won't be ready for anything for at least a few weeks. Also, he's Tony Armas.

What else? Jorge Sosa, I guess. He was decent as a starter last year until his weak strikeout-to-walk rate came face-to-face with a little something we like to call "regression to the mean", and *bam*, he turned back into a pumpkin.

What the Mets could really use is a guy like Kyle Lohse, whom the Mets could have had for pennies on the dollar (i.e. $4.25 MM), but for whatever reason they didn't make an offer and Lohse signed with the Cardinals. It's possible that the Mets were interested but Lohse simply preferred a guaranteed spot in the rotation. Whatever the case, one year and $4.25 million seems like a pretty reasonably-priced insurance policy.

So now we wait and see. It may be that both Pelfrey and Hernandez stay behind -- Pelfrey in Triple-A and Hernandez in extended spring training -- until the Mets actually need to call on that fifth starter. Maybe one or both of them will figure things out by then and we'll have gotten all worked up over nothing. One prominent trait of championship teams is player depth*, and the Mets have very little in that department right now, particularly in the rotation. As it stands they have four guys for five spots. What happens if one (or two!) of their other four starters get hurt? Bad things, man. Bad things.

*Unconfirmed, but sounds reasonable.

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Heilman & Co.
Give El Duque more time to heal and work on the new delivery.  Send Pelfrey to New Orleans to work on his mechanics and get his confidence back.

We won't need a fifth starter much the first couple months.  We when do, start Heilman, and if necessary, try the All-Star game approach of using a different pitcher every one to three innings.  If Sanchez is healthy and with the addition of Wise, I think we could afford to have a 5th starter by committee until June or July.

by Tom on Mar 24, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ID
I don't get the hate for intelligent design. The microscope is a tool of the devil and anything derived from it (cell theory, microchips, the notion that we are related to monkeys) is a big, fat, Masonic lie. What's so hard to understand?

I bet you also think those chupacabras they found in Texas are really "dogs with extremely bad mange."

P.S. If the Mets' hopes rest on El Duque making 25 decent starts, then all might be lost. Jeff Weaver is still available. He might not suck this year; isn't it worth $4M to find out for sure?

by citimetro on Mar 24, 2008 10:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

how much
of that post is facetious, and how much is serious? i cannot tell.

by gogomets on Mar 24, 2008 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry about that
I don't believe in intelligent design.

I think relying on El Duque is foolhardy. I hope he holds it together, but he's old, coming off injury, and they just tinkered with the delivery he's been using for the past 35 years.

I think the chances that the Chupacabra is real as about equal to the chance that Jeff Weaver won't suck this year.

I am also disappointed that an organization which had to resort to tossing away 4 regular season major league starts to a guy named Jose Lima less than 2 years ago would be so reckless in assembling their rotation.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

by citimetro on Mar 24, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha
i was a little confused. thanks for clearing it up. i agree 100% with everything there.

by gogomets on Mar 24, 2008 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

twelve bar blues
Well I woke up this morning and I got myself a beer
Well I woke up this morning and I got myself a beer
The five spot's uncertain and the opener's almost here

Well his sinker wouldn't sink and his slider wouldn't slide
I said his sinker wouldn't sink and his slider wouldn't slide
Mikey your shot at the fifth spot has up and died

Let it roll, baby, roll, etc etc

by Simons on Mar 24, 2008 1:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

JOHAN ON SATURDAY
Please Willie, I'm begging you:  Go with a four man until a fifth is needed.  I've got 6th row, front corner of the Mets dugout for Saturday vs ATL.  Please don't subject me to whoever you'd choose as our 5th right now.  Thanks in advance Willie.

by whynot on Mar 24, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lohse
i too would love to have Lohse as a insurance policy and i'm sure money wasnt what stopped the mets from signing him.  rather, i'd bet that lohse and boras were not going to sign a deal unless lohse was guaranteed a spot in the rotation.  and despite el duque being four thousand years old and pelfrey crapping all over the mound, its still 3 guys for 1 spot.  you can send pelfrey to AAA no problem but then what if duque is healthy enough that he stays of the DL?  

so it looks like replacement level instead of league average in the 5th spot.  if duque fails to refind his groove after injuries and big pelf continues to suck big peen.

by kendynamo on Mar 25, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

every team's
fifth starter is blah. that's why the guy is the 5th starter.

by gogomets on Mar 25, 2008 12:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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