Community Projection Results: Carlos Delgado

by Eric Simon on Mar 5, 2008 12:08 AM EST

Here are the results of the Delgado community projection from the other day. As is customary, I have provided the projections from a variety of forecasting systems to compare with our own.

	PA	BB	K	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
AA	567	66	116	27	0.271	0.363	0.489
CHONE	585	62	114	27	0.262	0.354	0.479
Marcel	565	57	112	25	0.265	0.349	0.485
Bill James	593	73	123	30	0.269	0.373	0.508
ZiPS	566	61	112	26	0.257	0.349	0.476
PECOTA	491	48	91	21	0.265	0.343	0.471

For the first time, I think, our projections for a Met player haven't been terrible optimistic. I know that we root heavily for our own and often over-inflate our predictions for these guys, perhaps fueled as much by optimism as by wishful thinking. This time around, the Bill James projection is actually quite a bit more optimistic than our own, and anything approaching a .269/.373/.508 season for Delgado would be a sure sale to just about any of us.

It's hard to talk about Delgado at all right now without mentioning his hip impingement, though his prognosis has improved of late. He has been goosing up on cortisone shots and anti-inflammatories, as well as the odd spin in the whirlpool to help accelerate his return. The signs have been positive, and there's a chance he may even play in a game this week.

Delgado's most immediate understudy, not counting Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson, would be Michel Abreu, but even he has been unable to avoid the plague of injuries that has been sweeping across Mets camp like murrain. Abreu sustained a strained right hip flexor that should keep him out of action for at least a few days. Scott Hatteberg might be available. Tony Clark is still out there. Uhh... Rico Brogna might be kicking around somewhere.

Thoughts? What are the Mets' best options if Delgado is unavailable/ineffective for some significant portion of the season?

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Delgado

Unfortunately, I made my projection before his hip injury and now I'm not so sure. It sounds like, even if nothing else happens, a condition that might bother him the rest of the year.

The problem replacing Delgado is that we'd have to replace what he does for us which is provide a 5-6 hole bat. That means decently consistent power and Scott Hatteburg ain't going to do it for us. I hesitate to give Clark too many at bats because he seems the type to famously not do as well when over exposed (playing every day). I think the only way we can come close to replacing Delgado is to work out some sort of platoon. Maybe a Miller/Clark platoon. Unfortunately, that would use up some precious room on the bench. Fortunately, the bench seems to be catching the injury bug as well so that might not be as hard....

by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 5, 2008 8:42 AM EST reply actions

Don't care

As long as it's not Easley or Anderson.

Maybe Omar will re-sign Jeff Conine or Shawn Green so that Willie can inexplicably play them as well.

by vonhayes on Mar 5, 2008 9:04 AM EST reply actions

trade

Jorge Sosa and Anderson Hernandez to Houston for Ty Wigginton

by citimetro on Mar 5, 2008 9:05 AM EST reply actions

How about another deal with the Nationals?

Dmitri Young. My sense is that the Nationals are going to go with Nick Johnson now that he appears fully recovered and fit. I'm guessing that Young can be had for relatively cheap. I wouldn't expect him to put up the same impressive numbers he produced for a good chunk of last year in place of Johnson, but I do think he'd be better than Easly, Anderson, Clark, Green, and probably Conine.

by Tom @ Amazin' Avenue on Mar 5, 2008 10:08 AM EST reply actions

hope he gets healthy, it's the only plan we have

This really was a predictable enough situation that the Mets ought to have had some kind of plan in place. As I said at the time, before Sean Casey signed a cheap one-year deal with the Red Sox he'd have been a perfect bench bat and fill-in 1B. Now we're reduced to dregs and to hoping Michel Abreu can develop into a replacement-level bat fast.

by anonymous on Mar 5, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply actions