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Michael Lewis on the King of Human Error - Vanity Fair

"Baseball men, living from day to day in the clutch of carefully metered chance occurrences, have developed an entire bestiary of imagined causes to tie together and thus make sense of patterns that are in truth entirely accidental. . . . They have an entire vocabulary of completely imaginary concepts used to tie together chance groupings. It includes ‘momentum,’ ‘confidence,’ ‘seeing the ball well,’ ‘slumps,’ ‘guts,’ ‘clutch ability,’ being ‘hot’ and ‘cold,’ ‘not being aggressive’ and my all time favorite the ‘intangibles.’ By such concepts, the baseball man gains a feeling of control over a universe that swings him up and down and tosses him from side to side like a yoyo in a high wind." — Bill James Lewis's feature is only tangentially about Bill James and baseball; it's primarily about psychologist Daniel Kahneman and the innate failings of human reason. Great read.

Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides a graph of projected wins for NL East teams according...

Nl_east_2011_dave_allen

Dave Allen at The Baseball Analysts provides a graph of projected wins for NL East teams according to various projection systems. The Mets projections range from 75 to 85 wins, with ~80 being the consensus. The graph is near identical to last year's, which turned out to be pretty spot on.

Amazin' Avenue Book Club: Moneyball, Chapter Four

Join the discussion of "Moneyball".

Make Frankie A Relief Ace

The Mets would be wise to convert Francisco Rodriguez to the relief ace role, for a number of reasons.

Bill James Answers All Your Baseball Questions - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog

Two things I dig -- Bill James and Freakonomics -- come together for one tremendously enjoyable visitor Q&A.

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