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WAR Not All It's Cracked Up To Be?

"When we stubbornly suggest that 0.5 WAR means anything, we are grossly exaggerating the statistic’s accuracy, even according to its creators. It remains true that any reasoned discussion of an individual’s contributions still requires analysis of the various components that go into WAR, as well as several that don’t, and, as such, subjectivity reigns." Perhaps to our collective dismay, this article at the Sweet Spot's Yankee blog, It's About the Money, makes a couple of interesting points regarding the weaknesses of this would-be Holy Grail of statistics.

Ultimate Base Running (UBR)

FanGraphs is now adding UBR as part of its WAR. It is under the "Bsr" stat column. This is retroactive from the 2002 season to the present, so fWAR has been recalculated. Some players, like Angel Pagan, really benefited from this. his 2010 fWAR was 4.9, but now it is 5.4.

WAR on Sportscenter

Sportscenter just used WAR to compare Tulowitzki to Hanley and Jeter. I think this is kind of a big deal.

Birthday WAR

Find out the player with the most WAR born on your birthday. Mine is Jack Stivetts who was born in 1868. Jack threw 440 innings and 40 complete games for the 1891 St. Louis Browns. (Via BBTF)

Here We Go Again: Phillies & Mets (FanGraphs)

TOTALS For the Phillies, we are looking at +26 wins from the lineup, +11.8 from the rotation, +3.4 from the bullpen, and +1.5 from the bench. This adds up to +42.7 wins. Given that a team chock-full of replacement players would win 47-48 games, the Phillies are projected to win 89-90 games in 2009. The Mets will get +26.1 wins from the lineup, +14.3 from the rotation featuring Lowe and the aforementioned Niese projection, +3.6 out of the ‘pen, and +0.9 from the bench. This adds up to +44.9 wins, which we will round up to +45 wins. Added to the replacement wins total, the Mets are projected to win 91-92 games next season. Once again, the teams are extremely close, and 2009 should treat fans to another stellar battle between the Mets and Phillies.
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