clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Up Next: Philadelphia Phillies

New, 7 comments

The Mets' Express rolls into the city of brotherly love for three games against the second-place Phillies. The Mets have an opportunity to widen the gap in the NL East, while the Phils will try to inch closer to the top.

Record

NL EAST          W   L   PCT    GB    HOME    ROAD    RS   RA
New York        39  23  .629    --   19-11   20-12   325  265
Philadelphia    33  30  .524   6.5   16-16   17-14   314  308
Atlanta         30  34  .469  10.0   14-14   16-20   324  337
Washington      30  35  .462  10.5   13-15   17-20   295  301
Florida         23  37  .383  15.0    9-17   14-20   277  299
Who's in first?
 W    L     RS        RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
33   30    314    308    32.1   30.9   29.8   33.2   31.2   31.8
W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Phillies' record is a tiny bit better than their expected record. Based on their adjusted record, the Phillies could expect to be 31-32 right now instead of 33-30.

                W   L    ERA     IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Brett Myers*         4   2   3.44    83.2   8.71   6.67   2.80   1.08   18.9
Cory Lidle*          4   5   4.68    75.0   9.84   7.44   2.88   0.96    4.5
Cole Hamels         1   1   3.68    22.0   6.14   9.00   5.32   0.41    5.5
Ryan Madson*         6   3   5.71    58.1  12.03   5.25   4.01   1.39   (0.7)
Eude Brito           0   2  10.38     8.2  14.54   2.08   5.19   0.00   (4.8)

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
Once again, the Mets run into the Phillies' ace Brett Myers. Fortunately, they also get Corey Lidle whom the Mets have destroyed this year. They also face Ryan Madsen, who has been inconsistent as a starter but pitched remarkably well in that sixteen inning game earlier in the year.

WPA Top Two
Brett Myers, 147.2% WPA
Cole Hamels, 55.6% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Gavin Floyd, -110.9% WPA
Ryan Madson, -59.6% WPA

Starting Lineup

              Pos    PA    AVG    OBP    SLG  SB CS    VORP   NL Rank
Sal Fasano          C    107   .253   .302   .404   0  1    (0.6)   11/16
Ryan Howard         1B   258   .294   .360   .614   0  0    21.6     5/19
Chase Utley         2B   283   .303   .375   .518   6  3    24.0     1/19
Jimmy Rollins       SS   289   .253   .308   .389  14  2     5.9    11/18
David Bell          3B   223   .259   .335   .381   0  0    (0.6)   17/18
Pat Burrell         LF   242   .259   .380   .532   0  0    13.3     7/19
Aaron Rowand        CF   198   .290   .332   .481   4  2     9.5     7/21
Bobby Abreu         RF   275   .288   .455   .493  10  4    21.1     1/17

rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
Solid lineup, especially in the middle, where four straight batters -- Utley, Abreu, Howard and Burrell -- can just mash. Even Aaron Rowand, known more for his defense, has had a very solid year at the plate. There are some easier outs here, though. David Bell has been pretty bad, Sal Fasano is a backup catcher, and Jimmy Rollins continues to make that long hitting streak look like a fluke.

WPA Top Two
Ryan Howard, 216.2% WPA
Chase Utley, 211.5% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
David Bell, -92.8% WPA
Jimmy Rollins, -85.0% WPA

Bullpen

                ERA     IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Tom Gordon          1.61    28.0   5.46  11.89   2.57   0.64   13.5
Arthur Rhodes       3.63    22.3   9.67  11.28   5.64   0.00    5.8
Aaron Fultz         3.41    34.3   9.44   9.96   2.62   0.79    8.0
Rheal Cormier       1.25    21.7   6.65   3.32   2.91   0.00   11.3
Geoff Geary         2.86    34.7  11.16   5.45   2.08   0.52   12.0
Ryan Franklin       4.71    28.7   9.42   5.02   3.14   2.20    3.0
Aside from Ryan Franklin, the Phillies have a very solid bullpen. Gordon and Rhodes have been superb, while Fultz, Cormier and Geary have each put together solid seasons in relief.

WPA Top Two
Tom Gordon, 178.2% WPA
Arthur Rhodes, 69.4% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ryan Franklin, -71.1% WPA
Julio Santana, -17.3% WPA

Bench

                    Pos    PA    AVG    OBP    SLG  SB CS    VORP
David Dellucci       OF    66   .254   .318   .542   0  1     2.4
Shane Victorino      OF   113   .327   .375   .519   0  0     9.4
Abraham Nunez        IF    72   .176   .222   .206   0  0    (7.8)   
Carlos Ruiz           C    39   .143   .162   .143   0  0    (6.1)   
Chris Coste          1B     9   .000   .111   .000   0  0    (2.0)   
Chris Roberson       OF    14   .071   .071   .071   0  0    (3.3)
Delluci and Victorino have been useful players off the bench, but the rest of these guys have been dreadful.

Manager

Charlie Manual is in his second season as manager of the Phillies. His "nice guy" attitude was supposed to be just the ticket to get the Phillies to play up to their potential. It hasn't happened yet. Or, maybe the Phillies are what they are.

                   # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                 111        1/16
Stolen Base Attempts       47        8/16
Sacrifice Bunts            21       13/16
Key Injuries

Jon Leiber, SP
Mike Lieberthal, C
Randy Wolf, SP
Julio Satana, RP