The Mets' Express rolls into the city of brotherly love for three games against the second-place Phillies. The Mets have an opportunity to widen the gap in the NL East, while the Phils will try to inch closer to the top.
Record
NL EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA New York 39 23 .629 -- 19-11 20-12 325 265 Philadelphia 33 30 .524 6.5 16-16 17-14 314 308 Atlanta 30 34 .469 10.0 14-14 16-20 324 337 Washington 30 35 .462 10.5 13-15 17-20 295 301 Florida 23 37 .383 15.0 9-17 14-20 277 299Who's in first?
W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 33 30 314 308 32.1 30.9 29.8 33.2 31.2 31.8W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
The Phillies' record is a tiny bit better than their expected record. Based on their adjusted record, the Phillies could expect to be 31-32 right now instead of 33-30.
W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Brett Myers* 4 2 3.44 83.2 8.71 6.67 2.80 1.08 18.9
Cory Lidle* 4 5 4.68 75.0 9.84 7.44 2.88 0.96 4.5
Cole Hamels 1 1 3.68 22.0 6.14 9.00 5.32 0.41 5.5
Ryan Madson* 6 3 5.71 58.1 12.03 5.25 4.01 1.39 (0.7)
Eude Brito 0 2 10.38 8.2 14.54 2.08 5.19 0.00 (4.8)
* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
Once again, the Mets run into the Phillies' ace Brett Myers. Fortunately, they also get Corey Lidle whom the Mets have destroyed this year. They also face Ryan Madsen, who has been inconsistent as a starter but pitched remarkably well in that sixteen inning game earlier in the year.
WPA Top Two
Brett Myers, 147.2% WPA
Cole Hamels, 55.6% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Gavin Floyd, -110.9% WPA
Ryan Madson, -59.6% WPA
Starting Lineup
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank
Sal Fasano C 107 .253 .302 .404 0 1 (0.6) 11/16
Ryan Howard 1B 258 .294 .360 .614 0 0 21.6 5/19
Chase Utley 2B 283 .303 .375 .518 6 3 24.0 1/19
Jimmy Rollins SS 289 .253 .308 .389 14 2 5.9 11/18
David Bell 3B 223 .259 .335 .381 0 0 (0.6) 17/18
Pat Burrell LF 242 .259 .380 .532 0 0 13.3 7/19
Aaron Rowand CF 198 .290 .332 .481 4 2 9.5 7/21
Bobby Abreu RF 275 .288 .455 .493 10 4 21.1 1/17
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
Solid lineup, especially in the middle, where four straight batters -- Utley, Abreu, Howard and Burrell -- can just mash. Even Aaron Rowand, known more for his defense, has had a very solid year at the plate. There are some easier outs here, though. David Bell has been pretty bad, Sal Fasano is a backup catcher, and Jimmy Rollins continues to make that long hitting streak look like a fluke.
WPA Top Two
Ryan Howard, 216.2% WPA
Chase Utley, 211.5% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
David Bell, -92.8% WPA
Jimmy Rollins, -85.0% WPA
Bullpen
ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Tom Gordon 1.61 28.0 5.46 11.89 2.57 0.64 13.5
Arthur Rhodes 3.63 22.3 9.67 11.28 5.64 0.00 5.8
Aaron Fultz 3.41 34.3 9.44 9.96 2.62 0.79 8.0
Rheal Cormier 1.25 21.7 6.65 3.32 2.91 0.00 11.3
Geoff Geary 2.86 34.7 11.16 5.45 2.08 0.52 12.0
Ryan Franklin 4.71 28.7 9.42 5.02 3.14 2.20 3.0
Aside from Ryan Franklin, the Phillies have a very solid bullpen. Gordon and Rhodes have been superb, while Fultz, Cormier and Geary have each put together solid seasons in relief.
WPA Top Two
Tom Gordon, 178.2% WPA
Arthur Rhodes, 69.4% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Ryan Franklin, -71.1% WPA
Julio Santana, -17.3% WPA
Bench
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
David Dellucci OF 66 .254 .318 .542 0 1 2.4
Shane Victorino OF 113 .327 .375 .519 0 0 9.4
Abraham Nunez IF 72 .176 .222 .206 0 0 (7.8)
Carlos Ruiz C 39 .143 .162 .143 0 0 (6.1)
Chris Coste 1B 9 .000 .111 .000 0 0 (2.0)
Chris Roberson OF 14 .071 .071 .071 0 0 (3.3)
Delluci and Victorino have been useful players off the bench, but the rest of these guys have been dreadful.
Manager
Charlie Manual is in his second season as manager of the Phillies. His "nice guy" attitude was supposed to be just the ticket to get the Phillies to play up to their potential. It hasn't happened yet. Or, maybe the Phillies are what they are.
# Times NL Rank
Pinch Hit 111 1/16
Stolen Base Attempts 47 8/16
Sacrifice Bunts 21 13/16
Key Injuries
Jon Leiber, SP
Mike Lieberthal, C
Randy Wolf, SP
Julio Satana, RP