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Record

NL CENTRAL        W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
St. Louis        42  26  .618   ---  24-13  18-13  349  291
Cincinnati       37  32  .536   5.5  17-19  20-13  352  349
Houston          36  34  .514   7.0  24-16  12-18  325  344
Milwaukee        35  35  .500   8.0  24-15  11-20  334  379
Chicago Cubs     26  42  .382  16.0  12-20  14-22  264  346
Pittsburgh       26  44  .371  17.0  18-19   8-25  317  343
 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
37   32    351    349    34.7   34.3   37.2   31.8   35.6   33.4
W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Reds have played a little bit worse than their record, based on their adjusted record.

Starting Rotation

                    W   L    ERA    IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Aaron Harang        7   5   3.92   96.1   9.34   9.25   2.34   0.93   13.4
Bronson Arroyo*     8   3   2.51   96.2   8.38   6.98   1.86   0.84   33.3
Eric Milton*        4   3   4.14   58.2   8.74   5.37   1.69   1.23   10.0
Elizardo Ramirez*   2   5   3.44   55.0   8.67   6.71   2.45   0.98    8.6
Joe Mays*           0   0   1.29    7.0   9.00   5.14   0.00   0.00    2.7

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
The Mets miss Harang, who has the best peripherals of this group, but they get Arroyo, who has been the best pitcher among them. They also get Eric Milton, who has pitched respectably well after a dreadful first year in Cinci in 2005. They also get Joe Mays, who is in fact *not* dead as I had previously assumed.

WPA Top Two
Bronson Arroyo, 179.0% WPA
Eric Milton, 61.8% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Dave Williams, -109.7% WPA
Brandon Claussen, -75.6% WPA

Starting Lineup

                   Pos    PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   NL Rank
Jason LaRue          C   105   .178   .279   .333    0   0  (-4.0)   14/18
Scott Hatteberg     1B   218   .294   .404   .433    0   1    9.3    11/20
Brandon Phillips    2B   230   .303   .345   .455   14   0   17.0     4/19
Felipe Lopez        SS   318   .277   .364   .403   20   6   15.8     5/18
Rich Aurilia        3B   179   .261   .315   .503    1   0    5.9    14/19
Adam Dunn           LF   297   .227   .372   .567    1   0   17.5     5/20
Ken Griffey Jr.     CF   185   .268   .324   .506    0   0    9.4     6/20
Austin Kearns       RF   284   .268   .345   .492    4   0   10.3     6/19

rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
Very productive lineup here, helped in no small part by Great American Ballpark. The Reds sport one of the best offensive outfields in the league as well as one of the best offensive middle-infields around. Adam Dunn is still the stereotypical three outcome hitter, homering, striking out or walking in 53% of his plate appearances. Griffey has hit well, though his on-base and defensive skills have been woeful.

WPA Top Two
Ken Griffey Jr., 146.5% WPA
Edwin Encarnacion, 116.8% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Austin Kearns, -54.8% WPA
Jason LaRue, -41.9% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA    IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
Todd Coffey         2.17   37.1   8.44   6.27   3.38   0.24   13.8
Dave Weathers       4.50   32.0   8.72   5.91   4.50   1.97    4.2
Kent Mercker        6.46   15.1   9.98   5.87   4.70   2.93  (-1.8)
Chris Hammond       5.61   25.2  10.17   7.36   1.40   1.40    0.1
Mike Burns         10.32   11.1  22.24   6.35   2.38   1.59  (-5.4)
Esteban Yan         5.19    8.2   8.31   6.23   5.19   3.12    0.7
Todd Coffey has been outstanding as the closer for this team, taking over early in the season from ex-Met and ex- a lot of teams) David Weathers. These guys give up a lot of hits and, other than Coffey, a whole lot of homeruns. Playing at GAB doesn't help matters, I'm sure.

WPA Top Two
Todd Coffey, 210.4% WPA
Kent Mercker, 10.4% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Rick White, -86.0% WPA
Esteban Yan, -43.4% WPA

Bench

                     Pos    PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS    VORP
Javier Valentin       C    104   .226   .298   .323    0   0   (-2.8)   
Dave Ross             C    101   .341   .420   .776    0   0    18.6   
Ryan Freel           2B    214   .272   .374   .418   13   4    10.3   
Juan Castro          IF      3   .000   .000   .000    0   0   (-0.9)   
Quinton McCracken    OF     55   .167   .231   .292    2   0   (-3.5)
Dave Ross has been terrific this season, but still only catches part-time, mainly in Arroyo starts. Ryan Freel is a fine player, too, and sees some action in centerfield when Griffey is resting/hurt. The rest of these guys are basically dreck.

Manager

The Reds are managed by Jerry Narron. Narron managed the Texas Rangers from 2001-2002 and is in his second season with the Reds.

                          # Times    NL Rank
Pinch Hit                   105       11/16
Stolen Base Attempts         78        3/16
Sacrifice Bunts              21       13/16
Injuries
Brandon Claussen
Edwin Encarnacion
Matt Belisle
Payroll
Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$59,162,015     22/30