clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Up Next: Toronto Blue Jays

New, 5 comments

The Mets kick off their road trip of doom in Toronto, as they take on the beasts of the AL East.

Record

AL EAST        W   L   PCT   GB    HOME   ROAD   RS   RA
Boston        42  28  .600   ---  21-10  21-18  382  344
NY Yankees    40  30  .571   2.0  20-14  20-16  404  332
Toronto       40  32  .556   3.0  23-14  17-18  391  352
Baltimore     33  41  .446  11.0  20-19  13-22  364  411
Tampa Bay     32  41  .438  11.5  17-15  15-26  319  388

 W    L     RS     RA     W1     L1     W2     L2     W3     L3
39   32    388    350    39.0   32.0   42.6   28.4   42.6   28.4
W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Blue Jays are underperforming their expectations a bit, though they have had a very productive season to this point. They sit just three games back of first place Boston and just a game back of the second place Yankees.

Starting Rotation

                  W   L    ERA     IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9    VORP
Roy Halladay*     8   2   2.94   101.0   8.11   4.72   1.16   0.80    34.6
A.J. Burnett      0   1   5.06    16.0   9.56   9.56   1.69   2.25     2.2
Ted Lilly         7   7   4.15    84.2   8.82   8.29   4.78   1.49    15.0
Casey Janssen*    5   5   4.50    62.0   9.00   4.65   1.74   0.73     9.5
Josh Towers*      1   8   8.76    50.1  14.13   4.65   2.68   2.50  (-15.1)

*  asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
Well, the Mets miss A.J. Burnett in this series but they get stuck with Doc Halladay, who will oppose El Duque on Saturday. Of course, they also get Josh Towers, who has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball this season.

WPA Top Two
Roy Halladay, 150.9% WPA
Casey Janssen, 28.4% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Josh Towers, -202.7% WPA
Ted Lilly, -24.4% WPA

Starting Lineup

                    Pos   PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP   AL Rank
Ben Molina           C   193   .298   .347   .427    0   1    6.3     9/16
Lyle Overbay        1B   289   .290   .370   .459    2   2   11.2     7/18
Russ Adams          2B   170   .248   .308   .353    1   1  (-0.8)   14/19
Aaron Hill          SS   258   .280   .329   .366    0   1    3.4     8/18
Troy Glaus          3B   304   .255   .355   .556    2   0   19.3     2/17
Frank Catalanotto   LF   200   .325   .430   .506    0   1   16.3     6/19
Vernon Wells        CF   307   .320   .384   .610    9   3   37.2     1/18
Alexis Rios         RF   288   .319   .375   .584    9   4   25.0     2/19
Shea Hillenbrand    DH   257   .318   .362   .517    0   2   15.8     5/14

rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
The first thing you notice about this team: solid lineup. They have four players in the Top 5 in VORP at their respective positions and another four in the Top 10. The only outlier is Russ Adams, who is basically a bum.

WPA Top Two
Vernon Wells, 191.7% WPA
Frank Catalanotto, 171.5% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Aaron Hill, -61.4% WPA
Shea Hillenbrand, -52.9% WPA

Bullpen

                     ERA     IP     H/9   SO/9   BB/9   HR/9   VORP
B.J. Ryan           0.49    37.0   4.14  10.46   1.95   0.00   23.6
Justin Speier       2.83    28.2   8.16   9.42   4.40   0.94   10.0
Scott Schoeneweis   6.08    23.2   8.75   5.32   3.42   1.14    0.7
Jason Frasor        5.79    28.0   8.68   8.04   3.86   1.61    1.7
Scott Downs         5.13    33.1   7.83   6.75   4.86   1.08    1.5
Ty Taubenheim       4.56    25.2  10.17   6.31   4.21   1.05    1.9
Brian Tallet        6.14    14.2   9.20   6.75   7.36   2.45    0.3
Well, on the bullpen side of things, B.J. Ryan has been untouchable, and has been to the Blue Jays what the Mets were expecting to get out of Billy Wagner. If Toronto carries a lead into the ninth inning you can basically put it in the books. Former Mets farmhand Justin Speier has been very good as well, but the rest of this pen is pretty suspect.

WPA Top Two
B.J. Ryan, 302.0% WPA
Jason Frasor, 55.8% WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Justin Speier, -52.8% WPA
Pete Walker, -44.8% WPA

Bench

                    Pos    PA    AVG    OBP    SLG   SB  CS   VORP
Gregg Zaun            C   131   .330   .389   .565    0   1   13.0   
John McDonald        IF    69   .238   .269   .254    4   1  (-3.1)   
Reed Johnson         OF   178   .379   .466   .529    6   1   22.3   
Eric Hinske          OF    95   .253   .347   .434    0   1    1.1
Reed Johnson is having a tremendous season, and in reality he does get a lot of playing time in the outfield. He has a few less plate appearances than F-Cat, so somebody had to be on the bench.

Manager

The Blue Jays are managed by John Gibbons, who had 50 career at-bats as a player, all with the Mets in 1984 and 1986. He was drafted by the Mets in the first round in 1980 and was supposed to be their backstop for the foreseeable future. Long story short, he got hurt, the Mets traded for Gary Carter, nuff said.

                       # Times    AL Rank
Pinch Hit                 44        2/14
Stolen Base Attempts      52        8/14
Sacrifice Bunts            6       14/14
Key Injuries
Gustavo Chacin
Pete Walker
Payroll
Team Payroll   MLB Rank
$71,915,000     16/30