Record
AL EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA Boston 45 28 .616 --- 24-10 21-18 405 356 NY Yankees 43 31 .581 2.5 23-15 20-16 417 345 Toronto 41 34 .547 5.0 24-16 17-18 403 369 Baltimore 35 42 .455 12.0 22-20 13-22 374 423 Tampa Bay 33 44 .429 14.0 18-17 15-27 331 406 W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 45 28 405 356 41.1 31.9 43.4 29.6 44.2 28.8W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
The Red Sox are right around where their expected record pegs them.
Starting Rotation
W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Curt Schilling* 9 2 3.61 107.1 8.64 8.05 1.09 1.17 30.3
Tim Wakefield 5 8 3.86 105.0 8.06 6.09 3.09 0.94 20.2
Josh Beckett* 9 3 4.84 89.1 7.86 7.56 3.02 1.81 8.9
Jon Lester* 2 0 2.76 16.1 7.16 10.47 4.96 0.00 6.2
Jason Johnson 3 8 5.96 77.0 12.62 3.74 2.57 1.17 (4.4)
* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
Pretty solid starting pitching, actually. Schilling has been very good for most of the year, and Wakefield is Wakefield. Beckett has been so-so, and Lester has gotten off to a good start. Jason Johnson is a bum, and unfortunately the Mets miss him in this series.
WPA Top Two
Curt Schilling, 122.5% WPA
Jonathan Lester, 31.3% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Matt Clement, -121.7% WPA
Lenny DiNardo, -66.6% WPA
Starting Lineup
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP AL Rank
Jason Varitek# C 242 .251 .340 .408 1 2 3.3 11/16
Kevin Youkilis 1B 324 .315 .426 .498 4 0 25.7 3/19
Mark Loretta 2B 322 .317 .357 .393 2 1 13.2 6/17
Alex Gonzalez SS 225 .262 .309 .351 1 0 0.1 12/16
Mike Lowell 3B 293 .308 .365 .504 1 0 17.5 3/17
Manny Ramirez LF 300 .298 .433 .601 0 0 31.2 1/20
Coco Crisp# CF 148 .283 .322 .406 5 3 2.2 13/18
Trot Nixon* RF 272 .326 .430 .489 0 0 20.6 5/20
David Ortiz* DH 332 .266 .377 .550 0 0 23.1 3/14
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch hitters
Well, this team can mash, Top-to-bottom, it might be the worst lineup Boston has had in five years, but it's still frighteningly good. There are some easier outs here, though. Alex Gonzalez hits about as well as you remember him hitting in Florida all those years. Coco Crisp has been far less productive than Johnny Damon, and even Jason Varitek is having an off year. Of course, Mike Lowell has bounced back nicely after an abysmal 2005; Kevin Youkilis has a .426 on-base percentage, which is a few points less than Manny Ramirez, who has been one of the best hitters in baseball. Again. Big Papi has been good if not a little short of his recent performances, though he's always there for a walk-off homerun or RBI.
WPA Top Two
David Ortiz, 242.3% WPA
Manny Ramirez, 211.8% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Coco Crisp, -78.8% WPA
Alex Gonzalez, -61.6% WPA
Bullpen
ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Jonathan Papelbon 0.46 39.1 5.03 9.38 1.37 0.23 24.9
Mike Timlin 1.80 25.0 9.00 5.76 2.52 0.36 12.2
Julian Tavarez 5.77 34.1 10.49 6.29 3.93 1.31 (-0.1)
Rudy Seanez 5.10 30.0 9.90 10.50 3.90 1.50 0.8
Craig Hansen 7.36 3.2 17.18 7.36 2.45 0.00 (-0.4)
Javier Lopez 2.25 4.0 2.25 4.50 9.00 0.00 1.8
Manuel Delcarmen 5.06 16.0 11.25 6.19 3.94 0.56 0.0
The bullpen is pretty hit-or-miss. Papelbon has been insanely good as the BoSox' closer, despite blowing a save yesterday afternoon to the Phillies. Timlin continues to impress despite just turning 40. Hansen, a first round pick last season, has been terrible, as has Tavarez, who likes to come into close ballgames and walk and hit everyone in sight.
WPA Top Two
Jonathan Papelbon, 346.5% WPA
Mike Timlin, 91.3% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Rudy Seanez, -110.9% WPA
Julian Tavarez, -105.2% WPA
Bench
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
Doug Mirabelli C 54 .157 .204 .275 0 0 (-5.1)
Alex Cora* IF 97 .301 .396 .361 2 2 3.7
Gabe Kapler OF 10 .500 .500 .900 0 0 3.0
Willie Harris* OF 50 .163 .260 .209 5 2 (-4.1)
Mirabelli is Tim Wakefield's personal catcher and isn't much with the stick. Gabe Kapler is Jewish, so he has that going for him. Willie Harris is useless and Alex Cora has been a nice surprise, and it's a wonder why he doesn't get more starts in place of Alex Gonzalez.
Manager
The Red Sox are helmed by Terry Francona, who will long be remembered as the man who led the beloved Sox to the World Series title, after so many years of non-titledness.
# Times AL Rank
Pinch Hit 44 3/14
Stolen Base Attempts 32 13/14
Sacrifice Bunts 9 12/14
Key Injuries
Matt Clement, SP Keith Foulke, RP David Wells, SP Wily Mo Pena, OF Leonard Dinardo, RPPayroll
Team Payroll MLB Rank $120,100,524 2/30