Record
NL CENTRAL W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA St. Louis 53 41 .564 --- 31-19 22-22 477 463 Cincinnati 50 46 .521 4.0 25-24 25-22 481 493 Houston 46 50 .479 8.0 28-22 18-28 436 458 Milwaukee 46 50 .479 8.0 29-20 17-30 444 514 Chicago Cubs 37 57 .394 16.0 17-28 20-29 383 476 Pittsburgh 35 62 .361 19.5 24-26 11-36 447 511 W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 46 50 436 458 45.8 50.2 44.0 52.0 42.5 53.5W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
The Astros have performed about three wins above their expected third-order winning percentage. Whether this is due to good managing, "small ball", or just luck, it's hard to tell, but in this instance I would guess luck. The Astros have been disproportionately successful in one-run games, going 15-9 this season. Unless they have an unusual propensity for winning close games, we would expect that to even out over teh course of the season.
Starting Rotation
W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Roy Oswalt* 6 7 3.22 131.1 9.46 5.96 1.64 0.82 40.0
Roger Clemens 2 3 2.43 33.1 7.83 7.29 2.43 0.54 10.7
Andy Pettitte 8 10 5.08 133.0 10.89 7.31 3.32 1.35 8.6
Brandon Backe* 1 0 2.25 8.0 4.50 3.38 2.25 2.25 3.5
Taylor Buchholz* 6 7 5.31 101.2 7.97 6.29 2.57 1.50 8.0
* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
With Roger Dodger back in the fold the Astros have a formidable one-two punch at the front end of the rotation. The biggest problem for the 'Stros' pitching has been the disappearance of last year's model of Andy Pettitte. He has been walking far too many batters and giving up an absurd number of hits. We're obviously not privy to these things, but you have to wonder if he's concealing an injury and/or tipping his pitches. Pettitte has been too good a pitcher for too long to just fall off a cliff like this, so I'm sure it's pretty frustrating down in Houston.
WPA Top Two
Roy Oswalt, 253.5% WPA
Christopher Sampson, 48.1% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Wandy Rodriguez, -74.3% WPA
Andy Pettitte, -58.1% WPA
Starting Lineup
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank
Brad Ausmus C 299 .243 .308 .303 3 1 (-8.2) 27/29
Lance Berkman# 1B 386 .318 .404 .599 1 1 39.5 2/22
Craig Biggio 2B 375 .268 .332 .426 1 1 12.0 12/24
Adam Everett SS 324 .236 .293 .318 3 3 (-7.6) 17/19
Aubrey Huff* 3B 30 .240 .367 .440 0 0 0.8 18/20
Preston Wilson LF 375 .279 .317 .419 5 2 1.0 17/21
Chris Burke CF 235 .296 .378 .498 7 0 19.5 4/25
Orlando Palmeiro* RF 81 .222 .291 .264 0 1 (-5.1) 16/20
* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
Lance Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game and Chris Burke appears to be finally coming into his own. Huff is still an unknown quantity in the NL, but the rest of these guys are not impressive. Biggio you can forgive somewhat because he's about 100, but Brad Ausmus continues to be one of the worst everyday hitters in all of baseball, Preston Wilson continues to fall well short of the expectations heaped on him as a youngster, Adam Everett can't hit a lick, and Orlando Palmeiro ... *shudder*. A word of advice to Mets' pitchers: do not let Berkman beat you. Walk him if you have to, because there's nothing but dreck as far as the eye can see.
WPA Top Two
Lance Berkman, 258.3% WPA
Morgan Ensberg, 66.3% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Brad Ausmus, -169.8% WPA
Adam Everett, -111.1% WPA
Bullpen
ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Brad Lidge 5.60 45.0 8.00 12.80 4.80 1.20 1.9
Dan Wheeler 3.57 40.1 8.48 8.26 2.90 0.67 9.8
Chad Qualls 3.48 54.1 7.29 4.97 2.65 0.99 16.4
Russ Springer 3.93 34.1 6.55 7.08 2.62 1.57 8.6
Trever Miller* 4.72 26.2 9.11 11.14 3.04 2.03 4.4
Dave Borkowski 3.96 38.2 8.38 7.91 2.33 0.70 9.7
Fernando Nieve 4.44 75.0 8.64 6.12 2.76 1.92 13.7
Other than Brad Lidge, who has been walking the ballpark this season, the core of the Astros' bullpen has remained solid. Ex-Met Dan Wheeler has been terrific as usual, and Chad QUalls and Russ Springer continue to pitch well in middle relief.
WPA Top Two
Chad Qualls, 140.0% WPA
Dave Borkowski, 93.2% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Mike Gallo, -111.0% WPA
Brad Lidge, -38.6% WPA
Bench
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
Eric Munson C 119 .219 .303 .381 0 0 (-1.4)
Eric Bruntlett IF 105 .256 .346 .322 2 1 0.1
Mike Lamb IF 245 .321 .373 .520 1 3 15.3
Luke Scott OF 9 .333 .333 .444 0 0 0.3
Willy Taveras OF 336 .259 .310 .311 13 5 (-5.7)
Mike Lamb has been starting a lot of games and is really the only useful bat in this group. Willy Taveras, who almost won the rookie of the year in 2005, has been dreadful and has basically been replaced in centerfield by Burke.
Manager
The Astros are managed by Phil Garner, who is in his third season in Houston and 14th overall.
# Times NL Rank
Pinch Hit 146 8/16
Stolen Base Attempts 59 14/16
Sacrifice Bunts 55 2/16
Key Injuries
Morgan Ensberg, 3BPayroll
Team Payroll MLB Rank $92,101,503 9/30