Record
NL CENTRAL W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA St. Louis 56 41 .577 ---- 31-19 25-22 491 465 Cincinnati 52 47 .525 5.0 27-25 25-22 496 509 Houston 47 52 .475 10.0 28-22 19-30 447 473 Milwaukee 47 52 .475 10.0 29-20 18-32 460 529 Chicago Cubs 37 60 .381 19.0 17-28 20-32 393 497 Pittsburgh 35 65 .350 22.5 24-26 11-39 452 525 W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 37 60 396 497 38.3 58.7 40.9 56.1 40.9 56.1W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
Starting Rotation
W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Carlos Zambrano* 10 3 3.11 139.0 6.15 9.13 4.92 0.91 44.1
Mark Prior* 0 4 8.14 24.1 11.47 8.88 4.81 1.85 (-7.4)
Greg Maddux* 7 11 4.92 124.1 10.06 5.14 1.59 1.01 14.8
Carlos Marmol 3 4 4.50 48.0 7.31 7.69 6.19 1.31 8.8
Sean Marshall 5 8 4.98 103.0 9.00 5.85 4.02 1.14 9.9
* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
Other than Carlos Zambrano, there's not a whole lot to get excited about here. Greg Maddux won his first five starts of the season and has gone 2-11 since. Mark Prior has been awful since coming off the disabled list, but I think he'll figure things out if he can just stay on the field.
WPA Top Two
Carlos Zambrano, 220.4% WPA
Sean Marshall, 17.1% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Mark Prior, -112.1% WPA
Glendon Rusch, -80.1% WPA
Starting Lineup
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank
Michael Barrett C 291 .333 .397 .535 0 0 29.9 1/30
Derrek Lee 1B 144 .261 .375 .429 5 4 3.1 20/22
Todd Walker* 2B 339 .282 .355 .389 0 1 7.4 16/24
Ronny Cedeno SS 355 .252 .278 .333 5 7 (-10.8) 18/19
Aramis Ramirez 3B 390 .266 .326 .511 1 1 13.6 10/20
Matt Murton LF 294 .278 .345 .373 4 1 0.0 19/22
Juan Pierre* CF 443 .279 .320 .369 36 10 7.4 11/24
Jacque Jones* RF 340 .291 .319 .498 6 1 12.6 8/19
* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
The best hitter on the Cubs? That'd be catcher Michael Barrett, who has not only been the best offensive catcher in the league this season, but he fulfilled every baseball fan's dream of punching A.J. Pierzynski right in the grillpiece. Derrek Lee has been back for a couple of months but has yet to regain his MVP-like stroke from a year ago. Aramis Ramirez is finally coming out of his prolonged slump, and Juan Pierre, while not an awful player, is perhaps finally being recognized as the overrated speedster that he is. Jacque Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the Cubbies, though he still has zero plate discipline (12 walks in well over 300 PAs) and still can't hit lefties worth a damn (.205/.222/.364). Todd Walker is hitting just enough to keep off the bench, though his defense may push him down around replacement level. Ronny Cedeno is one of the worst everyday players in baseball right now, though Rob Neyer said the same thing about Jose Reyes last season so you never know.
WPA Top Two
Jacque Jones, 167.3% WPA
Michael Barrett, 109.3% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Ronny Cedeno, -278.0% WPA
Juan Pierre, -173.6% WPA
Bullpen
ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Ryan Dempster 4.33 43.2 7.63 8.66 3.92 0.82 3.9
Bobby Howry 3.66 46.2 8.87 8.10 2.31 0.96 12.0
Scott Eyre* 2.22 44.2 7.25 10.07 4.23 1.21 17.7
Glendon Rusch* 7.14 58.0 10.40 8.38 4.19 2.79 (-8.5)
Will Ohman 4.10 41.2 7.13 9.07 3.67 1.30 9.5
Michael Wuertz 6.35 5.2 14.29 11.12 6.35 3.18 (-2.3)
David Aardsma 5.68 19.0 8.05 6.63 7.11 1.89 0.0
Roberto Novoa 5.16 45.1 10.52 6.15 4.57 2.38 (-5.0)
Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre have been terrific. Ryan Dempster has been okay. The rest of this group are probably nice guys.
WPA Top Two
Scott Eyre, 123.1% WPA
Angel Guzman, 8.3% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Ryan Dempster, -149.2% WPA
Scott Williamson, -49.2% WPA
Bench
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
Henry Blanco C 114 .240 .289 .442 0 0 0.8
Phil Nevin 1B 120 .252 .333 .495 0 0 3.7
Neifi Perez# IF 194 .249 .260 .351 0 1 (-6.0)
John Mabry* 1B 116 .222 .328 .333 0 0 (-2.6)
Angel Pagan# OF 57 .241 .281 .444 0 1 (-1.2)
Mostly dreck, though Nevin and Pagan have provided some pop off the bench, and Blanco is not terrible for a backup catcher.
Manager
Dusty Baker's reputation as a great manager likely flew out the window over the past couple of seasons. This is the guy who made the following bold proclamation in the face of the OBP revolution:
"Who's been the champions the last seven, eight years?" he asked "Have you ever heard the Yankees talk about on-base percentage and walks? Walks help. But you ain't going to walk across the plate. You're going to hit across the plate. That's the school I come from.Emphasis is mine.It's called hitting, and it ain't called walking. Do you ever see the top 10 walking? You see top 10 batting average. A lot of those top 10 do walk. But the name of the game is to hit."
# Times NL Rank
Pinch Hit 140 14/16
Stolen Base Attempts 100 5/16
Sacrifice Bunts 46 6/16
Key Injuries
Kerry Wood Freddie BynumPayroll
Team Payroll MLB Rank $94,841,166 7/30