After a demoralizing 1-5 swing through Beantown and the Bronx, the Mets are in desperate need for the comfort of home and the impotence of the National League.
Record
NL CENTRAL W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA St. Louis 44 36 .550 ---- 26-17 18-19 403 385 Cincinnati 44 38 .537 1.0 20-22 24-16 413 419 Houston 40 42 .488 5.0 25-18 15-24 377 406 Milwaukee 40 43 .482 5.5 25-17 15-26 383 450 Chicago Cubs 30 51 .370 14.5 14-25 16-26 328 425 Pittsburgh 28 55 .337 17.5 20-24 8-31 381 435 W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 28 55 381 438 36.0 47.0 33.8 49.2 33.4 49.6W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
The Pirates have actually underperformed their expected record by more than five games, which is outrageously high for a half-season. In fact, their raw pythagorean record is a full *eight* games better than their actual record.
Starting Rotation
W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Zach Duke* 5 7 4.92 106.0 10.44 5.26 3.40 0.85 11.3
Paul Maholm* 2 7 4.97 92.1 11.11 5.95 4.58 0.97 9.6
Ian Snell 7 6 5.00 93.2 10.67 7.21 3.36 1.15 7.5
Kip Wells* 0 3 15.19 10.2 16.88 3.38 5.91 1.69 (-11.2)
Tom Gorzelanny* 0 0 3.60 5.0 10.80 10.80 5.40 0.00 1.4
* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
Former ace Oliver Perez was recently demoted to AAA, so this is what's left. Kip Wells spent much of the season on the disabled list and the rest of it pitching poorly. Ian Snell is the only one with even respectable peripherals and his ERA is 5.00 even. The Pirates' struggles start with this rotation, and it's no wonder they are in the NL Central cellar. Again.
WPA Top Two
Ian Snell, 10.2% WPA
Tom Gorzelanny, 5.2% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Oliver Perez, -116.5% WPA
Kip Wells, -109.1% WPA
Starting Lineup
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank
Ron Paulino C 221 .310 .362 .394 0 0 7.6 9/25
Sean Casey* 1B 164 .301 .384 .441 0 0 6.6 14/21
Jose Castillo 2B 308 .282 .338 .457 4 3 15.0 8/21
Freddy Sanchez 3B 291 .363 .399 .530 1 1 29.4 4/19
Jack Wilson SS 316 .258 .297 .375 2 1 1.5 13/19
Jason Bay LF 367 .281 .395 .536 6 2 26.6 2/21
Jose Bautista CF 181 .258 .348 .535 1 2 10.2 8/22
Jeromy Burnitz* RF 253 .226 .274 .426 1 1 (-6.4) 17/19
* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
Some fine hitters here, none moreso than Jason Bay, though Freddy Sanchez is having a breakout season at third base. With the exception of Jack Wilson (thankfully he won't be going to the All Star game), most of thtese guys can hit.
WPA Top Two
Freddy Sanchez, 76.6% WPA
Craig Wilson, 62.6% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Jeromy Burnitz, -169.2% WPA
Jack Wilson, -165.1% WPA
Bullpen
ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Mike Gonzalez 2.67 33.2 8.29 8.55 5.35 0.27 12.8
Roberto Hernandez 2.43 37.0 8.27 6.32 4.14 0.73 8.0
Salomon Torres 4.50 54.0 10.50 5.50 2.67 1.00 6.6
Damaso Marte 3.38 29.1 8.90 11.66 4.30 0.92 6.0
John Grabow 5.57 32.1 11.13 6.96 4.18 1.67 (-0.1)
Matt Capps 3.53 43.1 9.14 6.65 1.04 1.04 12.4
Jonah Bayliss 3.00 3.0 9.00 12.00 12.00 0.00 1.0
Gonzalez and Hernandez have been impressive, though their walk rates leave a lot to be desired. Pretty decent collection of arms here, actually, and far superior to what they've got in the rotation.
WPA Top Two
Mike Gonzalez, 76.4% WPA
Salomon Torres, 28.7% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Damaso Marte, -70.7% WPA
Ryan Vogelsong, -60.6% WPA
Bench
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
Humberto Cota C 76 .229 .289 .243 0 0 (-4.4)
Craig Wilson 1B 249 .275 .357 .505 1 0 11.7
Jose Hernandez IF 81 .230 .287 .351 0 0 (-2.2)
Joe Randa 3B 112 .243 .286 .350 0 0 (-3.6)
Mike Edwards OF 18 .188 .235 .188 0 0 (-1.9)
Nathan McLouth* OF 208 .226 .296 .333 8 1 (-3.3)
Not much to write home about here except for Craig Wilson, who actually starts more often than Sean Casey at first base. Rotoworld lists Casey as the starter, so...
Manager
Jim Tracy is in his first season as manager of the Pirates after previously managing the Dodgers.
# Times NL Rank
Pinch Hit 134 4/16
Stolen Base Attempts 39 15/16
Sacrifice Bunts 26 13/16
Key Injuries
Ryan Doumit Victor SantosPayroll
Team Payroll MLB Rank $46,867,750 27/30