The Marlins come to town for a four-game series, including a double-dip on Saturday, before the Mets' caravan heads to Pittsburgh for the All-Star break.
Record
NL EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA Strk L10 NY Mets 51 34 .600 ---- 25-16 26-18 444 385 Won 3 4-6 Philadelphia 38 46 .452 12.5 19-25 19-21 404 446 Lost 2 3-7 Atlanta 38 48 .442 13.5 19-22 19-26 423 435 Won 2 6-4 Florida 36 46 .439 13.5 18-20 18-26 390 391 Lost 1 4-6 Washington 38 49 .437 14.0 20-21 18-28 394 452 Won 1 5-5 W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3 36 46 390 391 40.9 41.1 39.2 42.8 37.8 44.2W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
The "upstart" Marlins are actually underperforming their expected record by almost two wins, and are underperforming their raw pythagorean record by almost *five* wins.
Starting Rotation
W L ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Dontrelle Willis* 5 7 3.96 116.0 9.78 5.20 2.64 0.78 21.8
Scott Olsen* 6 4 4.17 86.1 7.40 7.71 3.96 1.25 11.5
Ricky Nolasco* 4 4 3.97 70.1 9.98 6.40 2.30 1.28 8.8
Josh Johnson* 6 2 2.34 80.2 7.25 7.70 4.13 0.67 26.8
Anibal Sanchez 1 0 6.60 15.0 12.60 4.80 4.20 1.80 (-2.3)
* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
Willis is the elder statesman at 24 years old, with everyone else clocking in at either 22 or 23. Compare that to the Mets, who have a 40-year-old, a 34-year-old, a 35-year-old, a 36-year-old*, and a 33-year-old (not counting Maine, who is just 25, and Pelfrey, who has yet to join the team). As happens with young pitchers, most of these guys struggle with their control a bit, and three of them have given up more than a homerun every nine innings. Willis has rebounded from an atrocious start and is pitching much better of late.
* El Duque is listed as being 36 years old, though it's probably closer to 46.
WPA Top Two
Josh Johnson, 167.0% WPA
Scott Olsen, 73.4% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Brian Moehler, -152.0% WPA
Sergio Mitre, -27.9% WPA
Starting Lineup
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank
Miguel Olivo C 214 .291 .321 .492 2 2 10.6 7/24
Mike Jacobs* 1B 281 .274 .352 .492 2 0 13.1 10/22
Dan Uggla 2B 330 .311 .368 .519 5 2 30.9 2/21
Hanley Ramirez SS 347 .274 .341 .411 25 4 19.5 4/19
Miguel Cabrera 3B 355 .342 .434 .571 7 5 42.2 1/19
Josh Willingham LF 283 .267 .353 .465 2 0 10.5 10/21
Reggie Abercrombie CF 221 .211 .279 .337 4 4 (-7.4) 23/23
Jeremy Hermida* RF 175 .281 .364 .412 2 0 5.2 9/19
* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
Miguel Cabrera continues to be one of the best young hitters in the game, and is pacing NL third basemen in VORP. Dan Uggla, a Rule V draftee that Florida nabbed from the prospect-rich Diamondbacks, has been the second-best player on the team. Hanley Ramirez has been great (for a shortstop) with the bat as well, and has swiped 25 bags in just 29 attempts, an 86% success rate. Everyone else here has been good-to-great, with the exception of Reggie Abercrombie, who has been dreadful in just about every conceivable way.
WPA Top Two
Miguel Cabrera, 226.1% WPA
Daniel Uggla, 76.6% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Reginald Abercrombie, -131.3% WPA
Alfredo Amezaga, -78.4% WPA
Bullpen
ERA IP H/9 SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Joe Borowski 3.94 32.0 7.88 7.31 4.50 1.12 7.3
Logan Kensing 3.33 24.1 6.29 10.73 5.92 0.37 7.4
Matt Herges 4.15 39.0 10.85 4.85 3.00 0.92 3.8
Jason Vargas 6.27 33.0 10.09 5.73 7.09 1.36 (-5.2)
Randy Messenger 2.81 32.0 8.72 6.47 2.25 0.56 8.3
Taylor Tankersley 2.35 7.2 7.04 10.57 7.04 0.00 2.1
Yusmeiro Petit 7.41 17.0 14.29 6.35 1.06 1.06 (-2.8)
Kensing and Messenger have both been very good, and Joe Borowski has been decent if unspectacular as the Marlins' closer. Tayler Tankersley has been solid in limited action, and former Met farmhand Yusmeiro Petit has been terrible, allowing more than fourteen hits every nine innings. His walk rate is terrific, but little else is worth writing home about. He's still a kid, though, so there's plenty of time for him to work things out.
WPA Top Two
Joe Borowski, 61.0% WPA
Taylor Tankersley, 51.3% WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Matt Herges, -119.0% WPA
Jason Vargas, -80.3% WPA
Bench
Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
Matt Treanor C 109 .202 .296 .277 0 1 (-5.5)
Wes Helms IF 122 .266 .325 .486 0 2 3.2
Alfredo Amezaga# IF 141 .250 .314 .355 6 4 (-0.4)
Joe Borchard# OF 141 .234 .326 .379 0 2 (-2.5)
Cody Ross OF 83 .222 .305 .375 0 0 (-1.5)
Other than Wes Helms, a bunch of dreck occupying the Marlins' bench.
Manager
After just one year as a coach -- Joe Torre's bench coach in 2005 -- Joe Girardi was handed the reigns of the shoestring-budgeted Marlins, and they have surprised everyone by not being any worse than the Braves, Nats and Phillies.
# Times NL Rank
Pinch Hit 125 10/16
Stolen Base Attempts 89 2/16
Sacrifice Bunts 38 7/16
Key Injuries
Sergio Mitre, SP Brian Moehler, SP Carlos Martinez, RPPayroll
Team Payroll MLB Rank $14,344,500 30/30