After their jubilant flight home from Los Angeles and a much-deserved off day on Monday, the Mets open a homestand against some of the suppler teams of the National League. Nothing is guaranteed, and you've gotta go out there and beat them just the same. First up are the Pirates de Pittsburgh.
Record
| NL CENTRAL | W | L | PCT | GB | HOME | ROAD | RS | RA | Streak | Last 10 |
| Milwaukee | 55 | 44 | .556 | - | 36-17 | 19-27 | 473 | 436 | Lost 1 | 6-4 |
| Chicago Cubs | 51 | 46 | .526 | 3 | 27-24 | 24-22 | 452 | 400 | Lost 2 | 7-3 |
| St. Louis | 45 | 50 | .474 | 8 | 21-22 | 24-28 | 414 | 492 | Won 1 | 5-5 |
| Houston | 42 | 57 | .424 | 13 | 24-23 | 18-34 | 432 | 494 | Lost 1 | 3-7 |
| Pittsburgh | 41 | 56 | .423 | 13 | 23-29 | 18-27 | 394 | 473 | Lost 1 | 2-8 |
| Cincinnati | 42 | 58 | .420 | 13.5 | 21-26 | 21-32 | 467 | 516 | Won 1 | 5-5 |
| W | L | RS | RA | W1 | L1 | W2 | L2 | W3 | L3 |
| 41. | 56. | 394 | 473 | 40.3 | 56.7 | 38.4 | 58.6 | 38.0 | 59.0 |
W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.
Pittsburgh stinks. Again. They are going to finish below .500 this season. Again. Just as they have in each season starting in 1993. They are almost certainly the most poorly run franchise in baseball, if not all of sports. They have some good young pitchers and a few solid young position players. There is no bright side, really, and if Pythagoras had his way their record would be even worse than it already is.
Starting Rotation
| Player | W | L | ERA | IP | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | VORP |
| * Ian Snell | 7 | 7 | 3.31 | 127.2 | 8.25 | 7.26 | 2.54 | 0.99 | 29.1 |
| * Tom Gorzelanny | 9 | 5 | 3.20 | 132.0 | 8.52 | 5.86 | 2.59 | 0.75 | 35.6 |
| * Paul Maholm | 6 | 12 | 4.57 | 126.0 | 9.57 | 5.36 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 9.1 |
| Shane Youman | 2 | 2 | 3.24 | 25.0 | 9.36 | 3.24 | 2.52 | 0.36 | 5.9 |
| John Van Benschoten | 0 | 4 | 8.17 | 25.1 | 9.95 | 5.68 | 6.04 | 0.36 | (-8.3) |
* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers
The Bucs' starting rotation has been its only real strength this season, and Snell and Gorzelanny have both been splendiferous this season. The strikeout rate on Gorz is unspectacular, but neither issues many walks or an egregious number of homeruns, and both have been innings eaters.
Maholm has been mediocre at best, but he's a crafty lefty so you can count on the Mets struggling against him. Moises Alou should be back in action this series so his right-handed bat should help some.
WPA Top Two
Tom Gorzelanny, 2.09 WPA
Ian Snell, 1.70 WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Zach Duke, -1.41 WPA
Tony Armas Jr., -1.32 WPA
Starting Lineup
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | SB | CS | VORP | NL Rank |
| Ronny Paulino | C | 281 | .240 | .285 | .359 | 1 | 2 | (-1.8) | 20/32 |
| Adam LaRoche* | 1B | 387 | .246 | .326 | .439 | 0 | 1 | 5.1 | 14/27 |
| Freddy Sanchez | 2B | 386 | .295 | .326 | .409 | 0 | 0 | 9.4 | 11/25 |
| Jack Wilson | SS | 362 | .252 | .305 | .347 | 0 | 3 | (-3.0) | 21/26 |
| Matt Kata# | 3B | 18 | .333 | .333 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 18/30 |
| Jason Bay | LF | 409 | .247 | .323 | .412 | 2 | 1 | 3.4 | 19/31 |
| Nate McLouth* | CF | 154 | .225 | .296 | .370 | 6 | 0 | 0.4 | 19/31 |
| Xavier Nady | RF | 338 | .280 | .334 | .479 | 2 | 1 | 13.9 | 6/28 |
* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA
Wow. Just putrid. Former Met Xavier Nady is the only position player with a VORP above ten, though Matt Kata has just 18 plate appearances so he is forgiven. Not a single regular with an on-base percentage above .335 and only one guy -- Nady -- slugging above .440. It's no surprise that the Pirates are next to last in the league in scoring, dead last in OBP and 14th in slugging. But don't fret, Pirates fans. They *are* third in HBP. Woot!
WPA Top Two
Xavier Nady, 1.37 WPA
Nate McLouth, 0.27 WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Ronny Paulino, -2.03 WPA
Freddy Sanchez, -1.97 WPA
Bullpen
| Player | ERA | IP | H/9 | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | VORP |
| Salomon Torres | 5.12 | 31.2 | 9.09 | 7.96 | 3.41 | 1.14 | 0.9 |
| Matt Capps | 2.24 | 52.1 | 7.39 | 6.19 | 1.89 | 0.34 | 17.8 |
| Damaso Marte | 1.53 | 29.1 | 5.52 | 10.43 | 3.68 | 0.00 | 11.4 |
| John Grabow | 5.47 | 26.1 | 11.62 | 7.86 | 4.44 | 1.03 | (-0.5) |
| Tony Armas Jr. | 7.57 | 44.0 | 12.07 | 6.55 | 4.30 | 1.84 | (-12.1) |
| Shawn Chacon | 3.48 | 72.1 | 8.46 | 7.47 | 4.35 | 0.62 | 17.4 |
| Masumi Kuwata | 6.60 | 15.0 | 7.20 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 1.80 | (-2.8) |
The bullpen has been a mixed bag. Matt Capps and Damaso Marte have both been very good, and Shawn Chacon has a 2.72 ERA as a reliever. Everyone else out there has been throwing batting practice.
WPA Top Two
Matt Capps, 2.17 WPA
Shawn Chacon, 1.53 WPA
WPA Bottom Two
Salomon Torres, -1.03 WPA
Josh Sharpless, -0.66 WPA
Bench
| Player | Pos | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | SB | CS | VORP |
| Josh Phelps | Bench1 | 19 | .267 | .421 | .267 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Jose Castillo | Bench2 | 129 | .238 | .271 | .328 | 0 | 0 | (-4.2) |
| Cesar Izturis# | Bench3 | 3 | .333 | .333 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Rajai Davis | Bench4 | 54 | .267 | .358 | .333 | 5 | 2 | 1.1 |
| Ryan Doumit# | Bench5 | 213 | .293 | .361 | .492 | 1 | 1 | 14.3 |
Ryan Doumit actually plays part time, which is a travesty because he is probably their best hitter. There is no reason that Nate McLouth and his .296 on-base percentage should be glomming up plate appearances in the outfield when you've got Doumit on the bench.
Manager
| Strategy | # Times | NL Rank |
| Pinch Hit | 128 | 16th |
| Stolen Base Attempts | 53 | 14th |
| Sacrifice Bunts | 38 | 8th |
Jim Tracy didn't really know what he was doing in Los Angeles when he had a good team, and he's even farther out to sea in Pittsburgh with this group.
Key Injuries
| Jose Bautista |
| Chris Duffy |
| Zach Duke |
Payroll
| Team Payroll | MLB Rank |
| $38,604,500 | 27th |