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Up Next: Mets vs Washington Nationals

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Record

NL EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA Streak Last 10
NY Mets 57 44 .564 - 28-21 29-23 466 431 Lost 1 6-4
Atlanta 54 49 .524 4 27-26 27-23 482 466 Lost 2 4-6
Philadelphia 52 49 .515 5 26-23 26-26 548 521 Lost 1 6-4
Florida 48 54 .471 9.5 23-29 25-25 492 520 Lost 3 4-6
Washington 43 58 .426 14 24-29 19-29 385 491 Won 1 6-4
W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3
42. 58. 378 485 38.7 61.4 39.1 60.9 40.5 59.5

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Nationals should consider themselves extremely fortunate that they aren't doing worse than they are. Most experts agreed that the Nats would lose in excess of 100 games this season, and that they could even rival the hallowed 120 loss mark. As things stand now, they are actually on pace for 90-95 losses, which is a miracle of "Red Sea parting" proportions. They have outperformed their expected Won/Loss record (based on run differential) by a few games.

Starting Rotation

Player W L ERA IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
*Mike Bacsik 3 6 4.39 67.2 10.51 2.79 2.39 1.60 4.2
*Tim Redding 1 2 2.92 24.2 8.03 1.82 2.92 0.73 7.3
*Billy Traber 2 1 4.09 33.0 9.82 6.27 3.00 0.82 4.3
*Jason Bergmann 2 5 4.56 75.0 7.56 6.60 3.48 1.32 6.8
Matt Chico 4 6 4.65 108.1 9.72 4.90 3.74 1.50 6.8

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

You'll have to scroll down to the "Key Inuries" section to really get the whole picture of the Nats' starting rotation. They have been destroyed by ineffectiveness and an inability to stay healthy. Their rotation currently features two former Mets: Billy Traber (sent to Cleveland in the Roberto Alomar deal) and Mike Bacsik (thought to have been lost in the ether years ago). Tim Redding has a respectable ERA in just 24.2 innings of work, but that seems unsustainable considering his perpherals to this point (1.92 K/9?). Traber has probably been the best of the bunch, and his strikeout-to-walk and homerun rates are not terrible.

WPA Top Two
Shawn Hill, 0.92 WPA
Jason Bergmann, 0.42 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Levale Speigner, -1.24 WPA
Jason Simontacchi, -1.00 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank
Brian Schneider* C 314 .233 .311 .320 0 0 (-0.7) 28/31
Dmitri Young# 1B 341 .335 .390 .513 0 0 29.9 5/26
Ronnie Belliard 2B 292 .304 .351 .426 1 0 13.7 7/25
Felipe Lopez# SS 419 .240 .299 .343 14 6 (-3.1) 20/26
Ryan Zimmerman 3B 435 .259 .313 .439 3 0 10.2 7/30
Ryan Church* LF 361 .259 .341 .416 3 1 9.7 13/31
Nook Logan CF 143 .215 .271 .300 10 1 (-3.5) 27/30
Austin Kearns RF 404 .251 .332 .369 0 1 0.7 20/28

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

You've got Dmitri Young, who is having a career year and was just signed to a two year extension to carry his considerable weight through his age 35 season. Ronnie Belliard has outperformed expectations, though his defense is deplorable and he is right around his 75% PECOTA projection (Young is demolishing his 90% PECOTA projection). Ryan Zimmerman is improving after a horrible start. Three guys -- Felipe Lopez, Nook Logan and Brian Schneider -- have all been worse than replacement level this year.

WPA Top Two
Dmitri Young, 0.78 WPA
Jesus Flores, 0.53 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Brian Schneider, -2.15 WPA
Robert Fick, -1.70 WPA

Bullpen

Player ERA IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Chad Cordero 2.62 48.0 8.25 6.94 3.38 1.12 14.6
Jon Rauch 3.76 52.2 7.18 7.52 2.22 0.68 9.3
Luis Ayala 3.86 11.2 6.94 3.86 3.86 0.77 2.2
Ray King 5.18 24.1 8.88 3.70 3.33 1.85 0.7
Chris Schroder 1.69 16.0 6.19 6.75 2.25 0.56 6.9
Saul Rivera 3.41 58.0 7.76 6.36 2.79 0.16 13.7
Chris Booker 0.00 1.0 0.00 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.6

The Nats' bullpen has been their strength. Chad Cordero continues to be solid despite mediocre strikeout and walk rates. Jon Rauch has probably been their best reliever this year, and his 3.76 ERA belies his performance thus far.

WPA Top Two
Jesus Colome, 1.79 WPA
Saul Rivera, 1.51 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Ryan Wagner, -0.51 WPA
Chris Booker, -0.34 WPA

Bench

Player Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
Jesus Flores Bench1 96 .244 .323 .326 0 1 0.1
Robert Fick* Bench2 132 .203 .280 .237 0 1 (-9.3)
D'Angelo Jimenez# Bench3 37 .100 .206 .100 0 0 (-5.0)
Tony Batista Bench4 58 .220 .293 .220 0 0 (-3.2)
Ryan Langerhans* Bench5 152 .192 .298 .369 2 0 (-1.4)

Basically dreck here, though Jesus Flores has been a nice surprise. He doesn't play much, but he's going to be on the roster all season and the Nats would be able to send him down to the minors next year if they were so inclined.

Manager

Strategy # Times NL Rank
Pinch Hit 175 1/16
Stolen Base Attempts 52 15/16
Sacrifice Bunts 36 9/16

The Nats are helmed by former Met third base coach Manny Acta, a pretty smart dude in my estimation. Really seems to get the analytical side of the game. Not surprisingly, the Nats are near the bottom of the league in attempted stolen bases, and are in the bottom half in sacrifice bunts.

Key Injuries

Nick Johnson
John Patterson
Shawn Hill
Jason Simontacchi
Cristian Guzman
Alex Escobar
Jesus Colome
Micah Bowie
Ryan Wagner

Payroll

Team Payroll MLB Rank
$37,347,500 28/30