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Up Next: Mets vs Florida Marlins

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The Mets just wrapped up a stinky, poopy, bitterly disappointing three game series with the Braves and welcome the struggling Marlins to town with open arms.

Record

NL EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA Streak Last 10
NY Mets 64 50 .561 - 31-25 33-25 532 485 Lost 1 6-4
Atlanta 61 54 .530 3.5 31-28 30-26 572 528 Won 1 7-3
Philadelphia 60 54 .526 4 31-24 29-30 625 570 Lost 1 5-5
Florida 53 62 .461 11.5 26-32 27-30 550 598 Won 1 5-5
Washington 53 62 .461 11.5 30-29 23-33 452 535 Won 1 8-2
W L RS RA W1 L1 W2 L2 W3 L3
52. 62. 546 596 52.2 61.8 54.5 59.5 53.6 60.4

W1 and L1 are the expected wins and losses based on runs scored and runs allowed.
W2 and L2 are the expected wins and losses based on BP's equivalence runs scored and allowed.
W3 and L3 are similar to W2 and L2 but adjusted for strength of schedule.

The Marlins are right where they should be based on their run differential: Ten games under .500.

Starting Rotation

Player W L ERA IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Dontrelle Willis 7 12 4.98 146.1 10.82 6.03 3.94 0.98 (-2.6)
*Scott Olsen 9 9 5.43 132.2 10.58 7.06 4.34 1.09 (-3.3)
Sergio Mitre 5 5 3.67 117.2 9.79 5.12 1.99 0.54 14.8
*Rick Vanden Hurk 3 3 7.49 51.2 10.80 8.36 6.10 1.57 (-12.3)

* asterisks denote probable starters vs Mets
() parentheses denote negative numbers
italics denote left-handed pitchers

In short, they've been terrible. The Marlins might have screwed the pooch by not trading Dontrelle Willis when his value was through the rough a year or two ago. I've never been overly impressed with him; his peripherals have declined considerably since his breakthrough rookie campaign. He's hardly a terrible pitcher and he's likely something better than he has shown this season, but he isn't a #1 type and he might not even be a #2 at this point. He isn't nearly as good as Mark Buehrle, and might not even be as good as Ted Lilly at this point. Anyhoo, Scoot Olsen has a world of talent but a bucket of rocks in his head. Sergio Mitre has been tremendously successful despite barely striking anyone out. Rick Vanden Hurk has allowed almost two homeruns and better than six walks every nine innings, which tells you all you need to know about Rick VandenHurk.

WPA Top Two
Sergio Mitre, 0.53 WPA
Byung-Hyun Kim, 0.05 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Dontrelle Willis, -1.59 WPA
Henricus Vanden Hurk, -1.45 WPA

Starting Lineup

Player Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP NL Rank
Miguel Olivo C 365 .234 .252 .380 2 2 (-3.6) 22/32
Mike Jacobs* 1B 262 .245 .294 .400 0 1 (-1.1) 22/27
Dan Uggla 2B 525 .249 .324 .497 2 0 24.7 4/29
Hanley Ramirez SS 483 .342 .395 .576 32 10 64.8 1/28
Miguel Cabrera 3B 473 .336 .409 .618 0 1 61.1 1/27
Josh Willingham LF 454 .269 .377 .479 5 1 25.4 8/31
Alfredo Amezaga# CF 382 .270 .325 .374 12 6 5.1 13/31
Jeremy Hermida RF 292 .260 .354 .448 2 4 8.1 13/29

* asterisks denote left-handed batters
# pound signs denote switch-hitters
rankings are based on VORP for players with at least 100 PA

A very, very good lineup with the exception of centerfield and catcher. Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez are bona fide superstars and the Marlins have gotten solid production again from Dan Uggla at second, Josh Willingham in left and Jeremy Hermida in right. Former Met Mike Jacobs has been decent in the power department but is doing a terrible job of getting on base. Maybe that would be passable if he were still a catcher but he is an offensive sinkhole at first base.

WPA Top Two
Miguel Cabrera, 3.18 WPA
Hanley Ramirez, 2.37 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Alfredo Amezaga, -1.55 WPA
Miguel Olivo, -1.35 WPA

Bullpen

Player ERA IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9 VORP
Armando Benitez 5.81 26.1 8.89 8.89 5.13 1.03 (-3.9)
Taylor Tankersley 4.88 31.1 8.04 8.04 5.74 0.86 2.4
Justin Miller 2.75 39.1 6.86 9.38 3.66 0.69 12.5
Matt Lindstrom 3.97 45.1 9.53 8.74 3.18 0.40 4.0
Lee Gardner 2.51 46.2 8.87 6.75 2.51 0.19 16.0
Mauro Zarate 13.50 1.1 13.50 6.75 6.75 6.75 (-2.1)
Kevin Gregg 3.19 62.0 6.82 8.56 4.21 0.73 15.5

Far from terrible. Kevin Gregg, Lee Gardner and Justin Miller have all been pleasant surprises coming out of the bullpen. Former Met and Marlin Armando Benitez is back in Florida for a second go-round and has struggled much this time. I'm sure he'll still dominate the Mets, but that's just par for the course.

WPA Top Two
Kevin Gregg, 1.95 WPA
Henry Owens, 0.78 WPA

WPA Bottom Two
Jorge Julio, -2.06 WPA
Armando Benitez, -1.22 WPA

Bench

Player Pos PA AVG OBP SLG SB CS VORP
Matt Treanor Bench1 107 .293 .377 .424 0 0 7.1
Jason Wood Bench2 97 .281 .323 .449 0 0 0.6
Alejandro De Aza* Bench3 39 .324 .333 .486 1 0 2.9
Todd Linden# Bench4 81 .288 .358 .397 2 0 3.4

Alejandro De Aza actually plays quite a bit in centerfield and can actually hit a little bit unlike Alfredo Amezaga who couldn't hit a brick wall with a bag of shit. Todd Linden was dumped by the Giants earlier in the year and hasn't done anything to establish himself with the Marlins. Matt Treanor has actually been a pleasant surprise for the Fish this year and is probably a much better option behind the dish than Mr. Swing-at-anything Miguel Olivo.

Manager

Strategy # Times NL Rank
Pinch Hit 188 5/16
Stolen Base Attempts 99 4/16
Sacrifice Bunts 54 4/16

Manager Fredi Gonzalez has his club in the top five in pinch hit appearances, stolen base attempts and sacrifice bunts. Kind of surprising considering that their offense is second in the National League with a .784 team OPS. Oh well.

Key Injuries

Josh Johnson
Ricky Nolasco
Henry Owens
Renyel Pinto
Aaron Boone
Cody Ross

Payroll

Team Payroll MLB Rank
$30,507,000 29/30