Here are the AA projection results for Pedro Martinez. We had thirteen projections accepted and one rejected (sorry, Manhasset Paulie) for omitting homeruns. Big kudos to everyone for following the projection formatting request, which made it incredibly easy to import into Excel and compute the averages.
| GS | IP | H | BB | K | HR | W | L | ERA | WHIP | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 26 | 161 | 144 | 35 | 161 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 3.29 | 1.12 | 3.21 |
| Bill James | 22 | 125 | 99 | 29 | 135 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 2.88 | 1.02 | 2.88 |
| Marcels | -- | 87 | 81 | 26 | 80 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3.83 | 1.23 | 3.60 |
| Chone | 18 | 108 | 98 | 33 | 97 | 11 | -- | -- | 3.58 | 1.21 | 3.64 |
| ZiPS | 24 | 150 | 129 | 36 | 145 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 3.24 | 1.10 | 3.37 |
Overall, our projections are extremely optimistic about Pedro's health, expecting him to make 26 starts at better than six innings per, which is well above what any of the fancy computer forecasting systems are expecting. The Bill James system is the most optimistic, performance-wise, projecting the highest strikeout rate and lowest WHIP of anyone. ZiPS is the most optimistic system with respect to playing time, and though the innings-per-start is less than the AA projection, the total starts and total innings are both very strong.
Health aside, the performance projections for Pedro are very positive. His ERA is high in a couple of cases -- Marcels and Chone -- but his peripherals remain good in light of that. His FIPs are generally right on the money, and those are also very optimistic about his 2008 performance. Interestingly, two AA projectors have his ERA at or just over 4.00, while everyone else guessed marks under 3.50.
We will revisit these once 2008 comes and goes and we can see how well our projections held up. I'll continue posting these until we cover most or all of the regular guys. Nice work, everyone.