Earlier in the week I solicited your projections for Jose Reyes. We all know that Reyes had a bit of a down year with the bat, though you wouldn't have predicted that outcome after watching his performance in April. He continues to improve in the walk department, but he didn't hit for a whole lot of power. Here's what you guys predicted.
| PA | BB | K | SB | CS | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 666 | 79 | 77 | 53 | 19 | 17 | 0.300 | 0.371 | 0.471 |
| CHONE | 693 | 60 | 72 | 67 | 17 | 12 | 0.293 | 0.355 | 0.438 |
| Marcel | 653 | 53 | 74 | 59 | 14 | 12 | 0.292 | 0.351 | 0.442 |
| Bill James | 728 | 59 | 75 | 69 | 20 | 14 | 0.289 | 0.348 | 0.442 |
| ZiPS | 747 | 74 | 79 | 71 | 20 | 15 | 0.285 | 0.356 | 0.444 |
Well, we're nothing if you're not optimistic. The .371 OBP from the AA forecast destroys even the most optimistic of the available forecast systems. Ditto our .471 SLG projection. Interestingly, the projection systems may be well below our largely unscientific estimates with respect to Reyes's rate stats, but they actually had much higher projections for his stolen base numbers. Perhaps we all just feel that Reyes needs to hold back a bit on the basepaths, and I think that may be reflected in the SB/CS numbers we put out there for him.
The good news is that even the most conservative forecast -- Bill James's .289/.348/.442 -- represents an overall improvement over Reyes's actual performance in 2007. Everyone recognizes his potential for greatness, but I think he needs to improve his focus on the field and his maturity in general. That may sound like a silly thing to say, but Reyes really fell apart attitude-wise towards the end of last season, and I like to think that someone with a bit more experience wouldn't have let that happen. These may sound like the ramblings of an old-fashioned baseball coot, but with little else of substance to go on here, I'm left with supposition and hearsay.