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Community Projection: John Maine

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The Mets may have bungled when they acquired Kris Benson at the 2004 trade deadline, but Omar Minaya spun straw into gold when he flipped Benson to the Orioles following the 2005 season. In return, the Mets got Jorge Julio (who would eventually be traded to Arizona for Orlando Hernandez) and John Maine, the latter of which was a key component of the Mets' surprisingly strong starting rotation in 2007.

Maine whiffed 180 batters in 191 innings last year and, despite fading a bit ERA-wise in the second half, managed to improve his strikeout rate as the season went along. He will turn 27 in May and is under the Mets' control for four more seasons.

Year GS IP H BB K HR W L ERA
2005 8 40.0 39 24 24 8 2 3 6.30
2006 15 90.0 69 33 71 15 6 5 3.60
2007 32 191.0 168 75 180 23 15 10 3.91

Whether or not the Mets finagle a trade for Johan Santana, John Maine figures to be a very important player in 2008. Can he be more consistent? Can he maintain his high strikeout rate? Is his remarkably low hit rate an aberration, or will he come back down to earth?

Let's project Maine's 2008 performance in the following categories:

  1. Games started
  2. Innings pitched
  3. Hits
  4. Walks
  5. Strikeouts
  6. Homeruns allowed
  7. Wins
  8. Losses
  9. ERA
And the customary disclaimer:

Try to avoid basing your prognostications on any of the projection systems (ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) that are out there. Stick to what your gut says. Post your projections in the comments in the following comma-delimited format:

GS,IP,H,BB,K,HR,W,L,ERA

You can even copy the line above, paste it into your comment, and then simply replace the categories with your projections. For example:

20,140,130,45,135,16,10,6,3.50

Posting in this manner will make it far easier for me to copy into Excel to tabulate. I'll post other pitchers and hitters in the coming weeks, and will tally our projections at the end.

And... go!