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2009 Bill James Projections: Available Hitters

The last three days we looked at The Bill James Handbook projections for Mets hitters and pitchers as well as other pitchers who might be available via trade or free agency. There's nothing new going on until after the World Series anyway, so let's go back to the projection well for another dip.

The Mets don't have nearly as many holes in their lineup as they do in their pitching staff, so there's a much smaller pool, positionally, from which to draw potential acquisitions from. Most of these guys may not even be on the Mets' radar, though most of them have been mentioned at one point or another.

Bobby Abreu 35 159 604 19 107 0.286 0.389 0.455 0.844
Rocco Baldelli 27 103 312 12 47 0.279 0.330 0.465 0.795
Milton Bradley 31 123 442 20 83 0.287 0.391 0.489 0.879
Pat Burrell 32 157 537 32 98 0.253 0.377 0.490 0.867
Adam Dunn 29 159 562 42 112 0.246 0.386 0.527 0.913
Rafael Furcal 31 119 486 9 71 0.286 0.354 0.409 0.763
Brian Giles 38 149 579 16 96 0.280 0.387 0.435 0.822
Jose Guillen 33 145 557 21 76 0.271 0.322 0.445 0.767
Orlando Hudson 31 140 533 11 78 0.283 0.353 0.420 0.773
Raul Ibanez 37 159 623 22 95 0.278 0.343 0.448 0.791
Manny Ramirez 37 150 552 34 121 0.301 0.404 0.551 0.955
Juan Rivera 30 99 317 13 48 0.281 0.327 0.467 0.794
Brian Roberts 31 156 623 10 96 0.283 0.364 0.414 0.778
Mark Teixeira 29 154 589 36 129 0.299 0.397 0.559 0.956
  • Bobby Abreu is still a nice hitter. He gets on base, isn't completely useless in the power department. His glove is meh, but his bat would probably be a solid upgrade over Ryan Church (his glove, on the other hand, would be a huge downgrade).
  • Rocco Baldelli never really did anything for me. He's got some pop, but his lack of plate discipline drags down his overall value.
  • Milton Bradley has a history of personal baggage, but he put things together in 2008 and had himself a brilliant season. His projection is very strong, though a dropoff from this past season's performance. He'll probably look for big money, and the Mets are notoriously averse to public relations question marks, but he'd add another powerful switch-hitting bat to the Mets' lineup.
  • Pat Burrell has evolved quite a bit as a hitter over the past few years. His plate discipline has improved substantially and is now one of the better offensive left-fielders in the game. Mets fans might cringe at bringing in an ex-Phillie, but if the Mets want a big right-handed bat, there's always Pat.
  • Adam Dunn is a polarizing figure among baseball fans. Flat-earth baseball purists turn away in horror at his low batting averages and high strikeout totals. Baseball neo-analysts point to his prodigious power and impressive walk totals. I count myself among the latter group.
  • Rafael Furcal is only really an option as a second-baseman, and I think we went down this road the last time he was a free agent four years ago. The projections aren't terribly optimistic about Furcal's offense, and all indications are that he wants to play shortstop somewhere. Wherever that is, it won't be at Citi Government-Backed Financial Institution Field.
  • I don't even know why I put Brian Giles on here. I guess because I've been a huge fan of the guy forever. He vetoed a trade to the Red Sox at the end of last season, and will only really be a free agent if the Padres decline his option.
  • Jose Guillen's name was pulled from the thin air of writer's block at The Post last week, and while his projection isn't exactly awe-inspiring, it could be decent as a fourth outfielder. Not likely to happen.
  • Why does everyone love Orlando Hudson? He'll probably be looking for 5/$55 million or so, which is way too much everything for someone who OPS-ed .718 outside of Arizona last season.
  • Raul Ibanez. Bad glove, projected bad bat. Do not want.
  • Manny Ramirez is a hitting machine. At 6/$120 million he can go scratch, but three years at similar money will get me to the table.
  • How is Juan Rivera only 30? Wasn't he a highly-touted Yankee prospect like 15 years ago? Another decent bench option here, nothing more, nothing less.
  • BJH doesn't think much of Brian Roberts. I do, but not at whatever exorbitant price tag the Orioles will slap on him this winter.
  • Mark Teixeira is the biggest name on the free agent market this year. For good reason: The guy is a terrific hitter and an exemplary fielder at first. The Mets are going to pick up Carlos Delgado's option so Teix doesn't really fit into the plans.

That's it. I think I've milked these projections dry. I promise something new and exciting tomorrow.