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Community Projection Results: Johan Santana

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Last week I solicited your projections for Johan Santana's first season in Queens. I had actually intended to ask for them quite a bit sooner but I thought it prudent to wait for the trade and requisite contract extension to be finalized before possibly jinxing the whole thing with a premature post about it. Twenty of you submitted your best guesses for Santana's performance next year, which is the most we have received for any projection to this point.

Your estimates ranged from "awesome" to "absurdly awesome", with the staunchest pessimist projecting a 3.15 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

System GS IP H BB K HR W L ERA WHIP FIP
AA 33 217 176 48 240 22 19 6 2.71 1.03 2.98
Bill James 32 216 174 57 228 24 16 8 3.00 1.07 3.33
CHONE -- 217 192 55 219 25 -- -- 3.36 1.14 3.44
Marcel -- 193 164 48 198 23 14 9 3.31 1.10 3.44
PECOTA 32 225 184 60 239 25 16 8 2.94 1.08 3.32
ZiPS 34 230 200 47 236 29 18 8 3.21 1.07 3.40

As usual, I have included the results of the fancy projection systems alongside our own, and though we are very optimistic about Santana's future, the other systems are bullish as well. PECOTA is the only one that has been updated to reflect Santana's trade to the Mets, so we might reasonably assume that the other systems might shave a quarter run or more off of their ERAs were they augmented to adjust for the weaker league, friendlier turf and superior defense that Santana will enjoy next year. It's extremely encouraging that our line is so similar to PECOTA's, only differing somewhat significantly in walks allowed (our mark is 20% below PECOTA's).

For anyone who is interested, I used 3.2 as the league factor in calculating FIP.

Pitchers and catchers report to spring training on Thursday, though David Wright is already there.