I'm not really the type to say things like "a month ago the Mets would have never come back to win this game", but, frankly, a month ago the Mets would have never come back to win this game. Three guys made this game: Wright, Tatis and Delgado. They drove in all ten runs and went 8-for-13 with three homeruns, a double and a couple of walks. Johan Santana didn't have it tonight and was yanked after just four innings. The bullpen wasn't great, but they were good enough to keep the game close, and when the game is close and the ballpark is pint-sized anything can happen and usually does. That's especially true when you're on a big winning streak and things just find a way to go right for you.
The WPA was fascinating for this game. For starters, check out the rollercoaster graph; I think I puked at turn three. As a refresher, each team starts with a win probability of 50%. This isn't exactly accurate since home teams tend to win more games than road teams, but for the sake of simplicity all games start at 50/50. That means the game is essentially a battle for the other team's 50%. Once a team hits 100% win probability the game is over and that team has won.
Mets' pitchers contributed -60% WPA, which means they blew all of the Mets' starting pot of 50% and then some. That's not a good thing. When your pitching staff digs you into a hole like that you don't usually climb out of it. It's not possible for a team to lose more than 50% of WPA in a game, so when the pitchers lose 60% the hitters have to make up the difference, and in most cases it would be a +10% to the hitters to make an even -50% and a big fat loss. Not tonight, because the Mets' had their hitting shoes on and contributed a mind-boggling +110% WPA, which is enough to win two games and have a little left over for the third. Wow, we all say, but it gets even better. The aforementioned Delgado, Wright and Tatis combined to contribute +125.4% WPA, which means the rest of the offense contributed approximately -15.4%. Throw those three guys out and the rest of the Mets were at -75.4% WPA; keep 'em in the game and it's a Mets victory.
First place, people. How does it taste?
Big winners: David Wright, +42.8% WPA, Fernando Tatis, +42.3% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +40.3% WPA
Big losers: Scott Schoeneweis, -44.6% WPA, Johan Santana, -36.1% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Nine-game winning streak not enough for Wright, +35.1%
Teh sux0rest play: Show blows, -46.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -60.0%
Total batter WPA: +110.0%
Game Thread Roll Call
Nice job by itsmetsforme; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.
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