When describing starting pitchers, we often say things like "he's an ace" or "he's a #4 pitcher". A pet peeve of mine is the wrongful labeling of a pitcher to a certain rotation spot, based on subjective perception rather than objective fact. Poll a group of baseball fans about this topic and you will likely receive a vast array of opinions. My take, which is similar to the ones shared in this post and this post, is that if a pitcher is in the top 1/5 of starters in his league, then he should be called a #1 starter. The next 1/5 are #2's, the next 1/5 are #3's, etc. I pulled some statistics from FanGraphs to devise a quick and dirty way of classifying National League starters at the halfway point of the season (the Mets have played 81 games, hence I'm calling this the halfway point).
A total of 7,613 innings were thrown by 121 different NL starters through Sunday. I put together a spreadsheet of all these pitchers, their innings pitched, and their FIP (fielding independent pitching). Dividing 7,613 by 5, I created 5 groups of 1522.2 innings. Beginning with the pitcher who boasts the best FIP (P.J. Walters, 1.04 FIP through 4 innings pitched), I summed innings until reaching 1522.2 to determine #1 pitchers. I did the same all the way through the bottom spot on the list, filled by John Koronka and his 11.90 FIP. Standard caveats apply here -- FIP doesn't account for batted balls like tRA, it isn't park adjusted, etc., but it's better than ERA for evaluating a pitcher's performance. Here are the results, showing pitcher classification, the number of pitchers that fit that classification, and the corresponding FIP:
| Rank | Pitchers | FIP Range |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 22 | 0.00-3.53 |
| #2 | 19 | 3.54-3.95 |
| #3 | 19 | 3.96-4.55 |
| #4 | 24 | 4.56-5.09 |
| #5 | 37 | 5.10+ |
Keep in mind that of the top 22 pitchers, only 9 have thrown at least 100 innings. Rodrigo Lopez owned the Mets on Friday night and has a 2.25 FIP through 6.1 innings, but calling him a true #1 is a stretch. Here is how the Mets' pitching staff stacks up, using this method:
| Pitcher | IP | FIP | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Niese | 10.2 | 1.72 | High #1 |
| Johan Santana | 109.1 | 3.91 | Low #2 |
| Mike Pelfrey | 88.2 | 4.10 | High #3 |
| Livan Hernandez | 96.2 | 4.68 | High #4 |
| Fernando Nieve | 27.2 | 4.74 | High #4 |
| John Maine | 61.2 | 4.90 | Low #4 |
| Tim Redding | 47.2 | 5.05 | Low #4 |
| Nelson Figueroa | 6 | 5.70 | Low #5 |
| Oliver Perez | 21.2 | 6.04 | Low #5 |
While it's true that Jon Niese should be freed from his minor league shackles, it's doubtful he would mantain his high #1 status. This means the Mets' best starter has been the equivalent of a low #2 pitcher, and most innings pitched by starters have been by #4 and #5 types. Only 14 starters have been worse than Ollie, but he'll get a shot to improve on that starting Wednesday night. Peruse the spreadsheet if you like, and here are some notable names and their classifications:
#1
- Tim Lincecum
- Javier Vazquez
- Chris Carpenter
- Dan Haren
- Josh Johnson
- Ricky Nolasco (he's baa-aack)
#2
- Cole Hamels
- Yovani Gallardo
- Derek Lowe
- Aaron Harang
- Ted Lilly
#3
- Carlos Zambrano
- Roy Oswalt
- Johnny Cueto (maybe not after last night's Phillies shellaquing)
- Randy Wolf
- Ryan Dempster
#4
- Aaron Cook
- Barry Zito
- Chris Volstad
- John Lannan
- Edinson Volquez
#5
- Rich Harden
- J.A. Happ
- Jeff Suppan
- Braden Looper
- Jamie Moyer
- Brett Myers