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Where We Are Now

When "Mark McGwire did steroids" constitutes breaking and shocking news, clearly nothing is going on. And while I promise I'm working on more interesting content, this lull in the offseason seems like a convenient opportunity to take stock of the 2010 Mets to date, and places where the roster carries room for improvement and potential holes. Below is the excel document I keep open all offseason--nothing too scientific, just rough, conservative estimates of hitter and pitcher WAR.

Wartodate_medium

So, that's 83 wins. Now choose your own adventure, with my WAR estimates.

Ways to improve:

  • Sign Joel Pineiro for 2/$16M +2 Wins
  • Reyes makes a full recovery +1 Win
  • Trade Castillo and Prospects for Brandon Phillips and Bronson Arroyo +5 Wins
  • Oliver Perez comes back from the API with his old fastball +1.5 Wins
  • Sign Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez for 1/$5M +1.5 Wins
  • Mike Pelfrey breakout +1.5 Wins
  • Jon Niese breakout +1 Win
  • Sign Jarrod Washburn or Jon Garland (blech) for 2/$13M +0.5 Wins 
  • Healthy John Maine +1 Win
  • Sign Doug Davis 1/$4M +0.5 Wins
  • Daniel Murphy breakout +2 Wins
  • Sign Russell Branyan or Carlos Delgado for 1/$3M + 0.5 Wins
  • David Wright is back +1 Win
  • Sign Gabe Gross to platoon in the OF +0.5 Win
  • Jeff Francoeur maintains Met success +1.5 Wins
  • Sign the Endy Chavez +1 Win
  • Sign Erik Bedard or Ben Sheets +1 Win
  • Add any catcher +1 Win
  • Sign John Smoltz +1 Win

Ways to get worse:

  • Jose Reyes' legs never fully recovers -3 Wins
  • David Wright repeats his poor '09 -2 Wins
  • Beltran or Bay's knees go out -1 Wins
  • Luis Castillo falls off the cliff -1.5 Win
  • Sign Bengie Molina
  • John Maine's sits out the year with injuries -1 Win
  • Pelfrey's yips -1 Win
  • Jerry Manuel -2 Wins
  • Classic Omar Minaya in-season management -2 Wins