When "Mark McGwire did steroids" constitutes breaking and shocking news, clearly nothing is going on. And while I promise I'm working on more interesting content, this lull in the offseason seems like a convenient opportunity to take stock of the 2010 Mets to date, and places where the roster carries room for improvement and potential holes. Below is the excel document I keep open all offseason--nothing too scientific, just rough, conservative estimates of hitter and pitcher WAR.
So, that's 83 wins. Now choose your own adventure, with my WAR estimates.
Ways to improve:
- Sign Joel Pineiro for 2/$16M +2 Wins
- Reyes makes a full recovery +1 Win
- Trade Castillo and Prospects for Brandon Phillips and Bronson Arroyo +5 Wins
- Oliver Perez comes back from the API with his old fastball +1.5 Wins
- Sign Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez for 1/$5M +1.5 Wins
- Mike Pelfrey breakout +1.5 Wins
- Jon Niese breakout +1 Win
- Sign Jarrod Washburn or Jon Garland (blech) for 2/$13M +0.5 Wins
- Healthy John Maine +1 Win
- Sign Doug Davis 1/$4M +0.5 Wins
- Daniel Murphy breakout +2 Wins
- Sign Russell Branyan or Carlos Delgado for 1/$3M + 0.5 Wins
- David Wright is back +1 Win
- Sign Gabe Gross to platoon in the OF +0.5 Win
- Jeff Francoeur maintains Met success +1.5 Wins
- Sign the Endy Chavez +1 Win
- Sign Erik Bedard or Ben Sheets +1 Win
- Add any catcher +1 Win
- Sign John Smoltz +1 Win
Ways to get worse:
- Jose Reyes' legs never fully recovers -3 Wins
- David Wright repeats his poor '09 -2 Wins
- Beltran or Bay's knees go out -1 Wins
- Luis Castillo falls off the cliff -1.5 Win
- Sign Bengie Molina
- John Maine's sits out the year with injuries -1 Win
- Pelfrey's yips -1 Win
- Jerry Manuel -2 Wins
- Classic Omar Minaya in-season management -2 Wins