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PECOTA Hates The Mets, Loves Johan Santana

Baseball Prospectus has released their new-and-improved PECOTA forecasts including their 2011 depth charts and standings projections. You need a subscription to view the standings and the depth charts, and while I think a BP membership is well worth your money, I'd rather see you spend it on the Amazin' Avenue Annual.

Here's a small subset of the projected standings, specifically the NL East results. The full standings include forecasts for runs scored and allowed plus team slash lines (AVG, OBP, SLG). Anyway, Colin Wyers's MacBook Pro spat out the following:


That's a pretty bleak outlook, but it's based on PECOTA's projections for individual players, and the system doesn't think much of the Mets in general. Except for Johan Santana, of whom PECOTA expects the best half-season of pitching we've ever seen.


WARP is basically BP's take on wins above replacement, and 5.7 WARP in 76 innings is ridiculous. For comparison, here is Cliff Lee's 2011 projection:


Santana is expected to be Lee's equal while pitching roughly a third as many innings. I assume this is a bug in the projection system (or the first signs of computer self-awareness? PECOTA LOVE JOHAN), and in fact all of the WARPs are now blanked out of the team depth charts on BP. To be continued...