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February WAR Projection

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Let's get right to it -- here is a WAR projection, using the projected roster posted this past weekend as a starting point:

February_war_projection_medium

Depending on the replacement level win total used, this looks like a 79-85 win team. It's slightly more optimistic than Vegas and probably pessimistic compared to those expecting a return to elite form for Wright/Reyes/Beltran.

Each of these can be quibbled with but I don't think any are outrageous. Conservatism is king. Well, maybe the bench projection is a little high. Marcel projections and gut instinct are the main forecasting tools. This will be updated much closer to the season, once the roster takes shape. Cross fingers for no concussions or thyroid issues.