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Saber-stat Series Preview: Mets vs. Rockies


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Tonight the Mets (15-19) continue their competition against the NL West when they travel to division-leading Colorado Rockies (18-14).

The Mets just took two out of three from the Dodgers while the Rockies have lost four straight.

So how do the Mets stack up?

Offensively, the Mets have been the better team (not what I expected, honestly). The Rockies are hitting more line drives and home runs per fly ball, but other than that the Mets have had the better offense. The advantage is slight, however, and so the difference in this series (as with most) is likely to come down to pitching.

Pitching, the Mets once again take a back seat to their opponent. The Rockies have given up 12% fewer runs than the NL average, while the Mets have given up 10% more. The Rockies' staff has done a much better job than the Mets' staff at keeping runners off base and a slightly better job of stranding them when they do reach. The biggest difference comes down to strikeouts and walks. The Rockies K/9-BB/9 is 2% worse than the NL average, but the Mets are 23% worse. The lone bright spot is that the Mets are giving up fewer home runs per fly ball, but that is likely a result of each team's respective home ballparks. Playing in Colorado won't help the Mets' cause much in this series.


(see here for the methodology behind these numbers)

Bill Petti is a regular columnist at Beyond the Box Score and an occasional contributor to Amazin' Avenue. He can also be found on Twitter at @BillPetti.