clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Mets vs. Rangers Saber-stat Series Preview

New, comments
click to embiggen

Tonight, the Mets (37-38, 9.5GB) begin a three-game series against the Rangers (40-36, leading the AL West).

The Mets took two of three from the Athletics and have played .500 ball over their last 10 games. The Rangers have gone 4-6 over their last ten, and took two out of three against the Astros.

The Rangers have a more potent offense, particularly when it comes to the long ball. However, that's largely a function of their home ballpark. Away from Arlington, the Rangers HR/FB ratio is only 7%, versus 15.2% at home.

The Mets' pitching staff has a HR/FB against of 7.4% at home versus 11.6% on the road--second worst in all of baseball.

Given that the Mets are traveling to Texas for this series we are likely to see some long balls from the Rangers. The Mets? Maybe, but it doesn't look good. Even with the friendly dimensions of the Rangers park the Mets have the third lowest HR/FB ratio in the league on the road. The Rangers staff has a HR/FB ratio of 11.9% at home, so that might help the Mets offense, but New York has a HR/FB ratio of only 4.7% during the month of June.

I hate to say it, but I think the Mets only manage one win before heading to Detroit next Tuesday.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

LOB%: Left On-base Percentage

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio