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Tonight, the Mets (37-38, 9.5GB) begin a three-game series against the Rangers (40-36, leading the AL West).
The Mets took two of three from the Athletics and have played .500 ball over their last 10 games. The Rangers have gone 4-6 over their last ten, and took two out of three against the Astros.
The Rangers have a more potent offense, particularly when it comes to the long ball. However, that's largely a function of their home ballpark. Away from Arlington, the Rangers HR/FB ratio is only 7%, versus 15.2% at home.
The Mets' pitching staff has a HR/FB against of 7.4% at home versus 11.6% on the road--second worst in all of baseball.
Given that the Mets are traveling to Texas for this series we are likely to see some long balls from the Rangers. The Mets? Maybe, but it doesn't look good. Even with the friendly dimensions of the Rangers park the Mets have the third lowest HR/FB ratio in the league on the road. The Rangers staff has a HR/FB ratio of 11.9% at home, so that might help the Mets offense, but New York has a HR/FB ratio of only 4.7% during the month of June.
I hate to say it, but I think the Mets only manage one win before heading to Detroit next Tuesday.
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Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.
Offense
RS/G: Runs Scored per Game
wOBA: Weighted On-base Average
OBP: On-base Percentage
SLG: Slugging
BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play
HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio
Defense
RA/G: Runs Against per Game
FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching
tERA: True Runs Allowed
LOB%: Left On-base Percentage
BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play
K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio
HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio
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