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Mets vs Yankees Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight, the above .500 Mets (41-40, 9.5GB) begin a three-game series against the New York Yankees (48-31, 1st AL East).

The Mets have been playing well, but the Yankees have been playing even better, going 8-2 over their last 10 games. I certainly didn't see the Yankees starting pitching holding up as well as it has to this point in the season, but it's hard to deny that they've been pretty good, especially when you think about their run environment.

As before, the biggest challenge for the Mets will be limiting the home run ball. Yes, the Mets are playing this series in Citi, and yes, their HR/FB ratio against looks much better there (7.4%). However, the Yankees still hit 15.3% of their fly balls for home runs on the road.

Even though the Mets' top-two starters in terms of home HR/FB aren't pitching this series (Pelfrey and Capuano), I still have a feeling the Mets can take two out of three against the Yanks.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

LOB%: Left On-base Percentage

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio