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Mets vs. Phillies Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight at Citi Field, the Mets (46-45, 11 GB) begin a X-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (57-34, 1st in NL East).

The story is much the same as when the Mets and Phils last met. The Mets have had an equal, if not slightly better, offense this year. What's most striking is that the Mets are scoring as much as they are without the benefit of lots of home runs and the Phils are a little less than league average in this category.

However, on the run prevention side of things the Phillies' clearly dominate. The currently health big-three of Halladay, Hamels, and Lee have been tremendous. Even without Oswalt, the Phillies pitching staff has continued to dominate opposing hitters. Their starters have accounted for 15.4 Wins Above Replacement this season. If you get to the bullpen you have a chance, but the Phillies tend to let their starters throw deep into games (11 complete games this year).

The Mets miss Halladay, but will see Lee and Hamels. I predict the Mets win one game, with a 30% chance of taking two out of three.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

LOB%: Left On-base Percentage

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio