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Mets vs. Marlins Saber-stat Series Preview (Now with SIERA)

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Tonight, the Mets (47-47, 12GB) play a makeup game against the Florida Marlins (46-49, 13.5GB) before welcoming the St. Louis Cardinals for a three-game series. The Mets will then travel to Florida for a three-game series against the Marlins beginning Friday.

Both teams have similar run prevention profiles, although the Marlins were thought to have a stronger pitching staff heading into this season. The loss of Josh Johnson for much of the season has certainly been a major factor.

The Mets have the advantage offensively. Even without three of their core offensive weapons (Jose Reyes, Ike Davis, and David Wright), the Mets are still scoring at about 10% above the NL average. 

I predict the Mets win the makeup game tonight and then go to Florida and take three out of four. In nine games against the Marlins, Chris Capuano has an OPS+ against of only 73 (4th lowest against any opponent). Horribly small sample size, but I'll leverage it to the hilt as the basis for predicting that Capuano can beat the Marlins twice in one week.

Be sure to check out Fish Stripes for news and commentary on the Marlins.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio