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Mets vs Dodgers Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight, the Mets (42-42, 10.5GB)  travel to LA for a four-game series against the Dodgers (37-47, 10.5GB).

LA has just had a dreadful season. Besides the off the field circus that surrounds the club, the team simply cannot score. The Dodgers runs per game stands at 7% less than league average. After MVP candidate Matt Kemp (.447 wOBA, 1.035 OPS) there simply isn't a whole lot to scare opposing pitchers in this lineup.   

The Mets are coming off a 6-4 stretch where they played 3 first-place teams from the AL. Their offense is still putting up runs on the board (8% better than league average), which is bailing out the still unreliable run prevention (14% below league average).

Even with the quick turnaround and coast-to-coast travel I'd say the Mets have a good chance to win this series. However, that changes if Jose Reyes and his hamstring end up taking a few days off. Reyes is responsible for 19% of the Mets' runs created (more on this tomorrow), so without him in the lineup the scoring edge could dry up pretty quickly.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

LOB%: Left On-base Percentage

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio