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Mets vs. Marlins Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight the Mets (55-53, 13.5GB) begin a three-game series against the Florida Marlins (53-55, 15.5GB) tonight at Citi Field.

The Mets have lost two straight, but managed to go 6-4 during their recent road trip, during which Carlos Beltran was dealt to the Giants for top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. The offense hasn't missed a beat, however, since David Wright came off the DL on July 22nd and has been nothing short of fantastic at the plate. Since returning, Wright has sported a triple slash of .455/.457/.659. Yahtzee.

The Mets enter this series equal with the Marlins in terms of run prevention and a better offense. However, the Marlins had the second highest team wOBA in the NL in July (.345) after sporting the worst in June. The Mets had the best in June and ranked 4th in July (.330). 

Capuano got knocked around in his last two starts against the Marlins despite a decent historical record against them. If Big Pelf can replicate his last start, the Mets have a good chance to take the series.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio