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Mets vs. Padres Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight, the Mets (58-62, 20.5GB) travel to San Diego to begin a three-game series against the Padres (54-68, 14.5GB).

Last week, the Mets and Padres split a four-game series at Citi Field. Considering the Padres season-long difficulties with scoring runs, their offense proved to be a problem for the Mets as they actually outscored the Mets in that series, 24-21. Yes, Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy are out of the line-up, but the team has still managed to score just about the same number of runs per game (4.42) since they went down as their season average (4.51). Run prevention-wise, the Mets have given up 5.6 runs per game over that same stretch, over a full run more than their season average (4.5).

As it has been most of the season, the series turns on whether the Mets can muster up enough run prevention to support the offense. I'll close my eyes and hope really hard and maybe they'll take two out of three.

For more on the Padres, be sure to check out Gaslamp Ball.

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Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.

Offense

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Defense

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio