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Mets vs. Brewers Saber-stat Preview

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Tonight the Mets (60-63, 20.5GB) begin a three-game series against the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (73-52).

The Mets and Brewers are a pretty equally matched team on offense, not so much on defense. However, the Brewers have a terrible Home-Road split this year. Offensively, their hitters have wRC+ of only 85. Only teams like those hard hitting Twins, Mariners, Giants, and Astros are worse on the road. Their pitching has fared much better, putting up an xFIP of 3.75 (6th overall) and a FIP of 3.98 (13th overall).

Still, the lack of offense on the road combined with hitting in a pitcher-friendly park gives me a bit of hope. I'd have more hope if Gee or Niese was pitching one game instead of Pelfrey, but it is what it is.

I say Mets lose game one, but take the remaining two games.

For more great Brewers coverage, be sure to check out Brew Crew Ball.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio