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Mets vs. Phillies Saber-stat Preview

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After getting swept at home by the Brewers, the Mets (60-66, 21.5 GB) begin a three-game series against another division-leading team--NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (81-44). 

Earlier this year the Phillies were leaning heavily on their pitching and defense. With the return of Chase Utley and the positive regression of some regulars, the Phillies now sport an above-average offense to go along with their unrivaled run prevention. Pick a metric, any metric. Either way you slice it, they are arguably the best team in the majors heading into the final six weeks of the regular season.

At home, the Phils sport the second best xFIP in the league behind Atlanta. They've only managed to be league-average offensively at home, but with that pitching it's typically more than enough (they are 44-20 at home this season, on Milwaukee has been better).

With Kendrick scheduled to pitch game three I'd say the Mets have a chance at avoiding the sweep.

For more on the Phillies (and generally great baseball writing), be sure to check out The Good Phight 


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio