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Mets vs. Braves Saber-stat Preview

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After avoiding the sweep against Phillies (praise be Kyle Kendrick), the Mets (61-68) return to Citi Field and begin a three-game series against the NL Wild Card-leading Atlanta Braves (79-53). 

It's hard to imagine Atlanta falling from atop the Wild Card standings, as they have really put some distance between themselves and the Giants and Cardinals over the past 10 games.

The Braves continue to be a league-average run scoring team, but their run prevention is still one of the best in the majors (3rd best in the NL). And to do so they rely mostly on the strength of their pitching staff. Atlanta currently ranks third-worst in the league defensively in terms of UZR and UZR/150 (three guesses whose second-worst).

So far this year the Mets and Braves have split their 12 games. Considering the vaunted run prevention of the Braves, the Mets have managed to score almost a full run more against them (4.3) than the rest of the league has mustered (3.4). Amazingly, the Braves have only managed to score 4.1 runs per game against the Mets, right on their average for the season.

Call me a dreamer, I say the Mets take two out of three.

For more coverage of the Braves head on over to Talking Chop.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio