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Mets vs Marlins Saber-stat Preview

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After taking game 1 of their series with the Braves, and having the other two postponed due to good 'ol Irene, the Mets (62-68) begin a five-game series against the NL East rival Marlins (59-72) with a double-header starting this afternoon at Citi Field.

Despite an edge in run scoring and roughly equal run prevention, the Mets have gone 3-7 against the fish this season. They've scored 4.1 runs against the Marlins in their 10 games and given up 4.8. In reality, the Mets won two of those games during the season opening series. Since then, they've gone 1-6, scoring only 3.4 per game and giving up 5.14. 

For some reason, the Marlins pitchers have feasted on the Mets' lineup, throwing up their 8th best OPS+ against New York (6th if you discount interleague opponents). The Mets will likely get Jose Reyes back for this series, so that can't hurt.

All in all, five games in four days against a team that has eaten your lunch is a tough draw. And losing Niese to the DL isn't going to help matters. I'll close my eyes and throw a dart--oh, lookee, a three!

Mets win the series, 3 games to 2.

For more on the Marlins, be sure to check out Fish Stripes.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio