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Mets vs. Braves Saber-stat Series Preview

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Tonight at Citi Field, the Mets (55-55, 16.5GB) begin a critical three-game series against the Atlanta Braves (64-48, 8.5GB).

Both teams have been playing .500 ball of late, although the Mets have lost their last four games. The Mets remain the better offensive team, but the Braves' ability to prevent runs is even better no matter how you slide the data. The Mets have the 7th best offensive BABIP at home this year (.307), while the Braves have the worst when playing away from Turner Field (.263 vs. .305 at home). That being said, the Mets face Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens and the Braves have been pretty good at suppressing BABIP with those three on the road.

As good as the Braves have been this year their post-season dreams appear to lie with the Wild Card, and they currently lead that race by 2.5 games over Arizona. The Mets are 8 games back of the Braves. A sweep, and suddenly the last 2 months get real interesting. Anything less than that and the Mets are probably fixing their gaze squarely on 2012.

I'm feeling optimistic, but not blindly so. Mets find a way to take two out of three.

For more on the Atlanta Braves, be sure to check out Talking Chop.

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Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.

Offense

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Defense

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio