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Mets vs. Braves Saber-stat Preview

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Tonight the Mets (71-77) begin a three-game series in Atlanta against the Braves (86-64). The Braves still lead the surging Cardinals by 4 games in the loss column for the NL Wild Card, while the Mets--well--have looked craptastic of late.

Finishing the season at .500 is pretty much a pipe dream for the Mets now, as they would need to go 10-4 over their last 14 games. Sure, they could play .714 ball from here on out, but from what I've seen lately I am not counting on it. Figure they've got about a 7% chance of rolling off 10 out of 14, so I'm not holding my breath.

Things get tougher when we look at the upcoming schedules (besides the Braves they are looking at St. Louis and Philadelphia).

Maybe some teams rest their starters or play their youngsters, but Atlanta and St. Louis are fighting for a playoff spot so I wouldn't count on any relief there.

Given they way they've played of late, I'd be happy if the Mets win one of these three games.

For more on the Braves, check out Talking Chop.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio