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Mets vs. Reds Saber-stat Preview

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Tonight, the Mets (76-83) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (77-82) to town for the final three games of the season.

The Mets sit three games out of 3rd place in the NL East and have no shot at finsihing .500 for the year. But this is about where we should have expected them to be. Sure, I hoped they'd be a tad better than .500, but considering the injuries to Jose Reyes, David Wright, Ike Davis, the trading mid-season of Carlos Beltran, and the lack of depth in the rotation and I can't say I am dissappointed with the season.

The team has certainly taken strides, and this can most readily be seen by looking at the offense. The team scored 8% more runs than the NL average, helped in large part by being more protective of their outs. This is a step in the right direction.

The defense and pitching still leaves a lot to be desired, but the front office appears to have a plan and if nothing else their process gives me more hope than recent front offices.

That being said, there are still three games to play. The Mets and Reds are very similar teams. Above average offenses, well below average run prevention. The Mets sport the better pitching staff, but a poor defense whereas the Reds seemingly have the opposite. In either case, neither team is good at keeping runs off the board.

The Reds are a poor road team and the Mets are a poor home team. 

I'll end this year's previews on a high note. Mets sweep the final three games.

For more on the Reds, be sure to check out Red Reporter.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of the statistic. For example, if a team has a FIP of 110% on the graph their actual FIP is 10% better than league average.

Statistics have not been park adjusted, but are adjusted for each team's respective league.


RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

SLG: Slugging

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

LD%: Line-drive Percentage

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio


RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

tERA: True Runs Allowed

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (FanGraphs' version)

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio