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Fan Projections of Key Mets

By Eno Sarris

Have you projected your favorite Mets at FanGraphs yet? If anyone should put their stamp on that crowdsourcing effort, it should be our community, so consider this a plea to do so. Our reason may have to balance out some irrational exuberance, or vice-versa.

In the meantime, and in order to perhaps give you easy links to key figures, we'll look at what the fans have projected so far, compared to ZiPs, and discuss where the difference may have come from.

The numbers!

David Wright (project him)

G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2011 102 447 99 14 60 61 13 11.6% 21.7% 0.254 0.345 0.427
ZiPs 2012 136 593 139 19 77 78 20 11.2% 21.4% 0.269 0.351 0.447
Fans 2012 150 658 169 27 94 100 27 11.1% 21.3% 0.289 0.366 0.497

We'll see the beginning of a trend here with the fans being more positive and ZiPs being more pessimistic, but it 's nice to see that ZiPs has the same opinion about Wright keeping his strikeout rate down. From our Project: David Wright piece, we can perhaps say that Hudgens has helped close that hole on the outisde part of the plate. Where the fans and ZiPs disagree is on health and power. It's hard to say if a fractured back means he'll have a hard time staying healthy, and it's hard to say if he'll get his power back. But he certainly can put up the numbers that the Fans are projecting. It's possible -- then again, if he hits those numbers, does he get traded?

Ike Davis (project him)

G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2011 36 149 39 7 20 25 11.1% 20.8% 0.302 0.383 0.543
ZiPs 2012 99 411 92 15 47 51 1 11.2% 25.8% 0.255 0.338 0.449
Fans 2012 139 595 147 25 84 101 1 12.3% 20.2% 0.282 0.368 0.489

This is what happens when you miss most of a season early in your career, it seems. ZiPs sees nothing but a big hole in half your career and figures you've got problems staying healthy. But if it was just a one-time thing, then ZiPs will whiff on his playing time for sure. As for the strikeout rate -- you can see where that number came from. Davis struck out too often in Double-A and has that hitch in his swing. It's a warning sign to the young man, that he needs to make sure to make contact. Most of the power and OBP gap is explained by the difference in batting average, which is explained by that strikeout rate. So, how often do you think a guy that has whiffed on 9.6% of the pitches he's seen (8.5% is average) will strike out this year?

Ruben Tejada (project him)

G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2011 96 376 93 31 36 5 9.3% 13.3% 0.284 0.36 0.335
ZiPs 2012 156 600 137 3 55 46 8 7.8% 13.7% 0.259 0.329 0.339
Fans 2012 146 600 152 2 59 65 10 8.8% 13.2% 0.278 0.35 0.338

We did practically a series of posts on Ruben Tejada's walk rate, but even those percentage points of difference in the projections are meaningful -- one's above average and one is below. Otherwise, it's just a few singles that separate these lines. Consensus? (Also, the fans so far have Tejada with a +1 run glove at shortstop -- do you think he can do better?)

Lucas Duda (project him)

G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2011 100 347 88 10 38 50 1 9.5% 16.4% 0.292 0.37 0.482
ZiPs 2012 146 578 129 17 58 70 1 9.9% 21.5% 0.256 0.338 0.431
Fans 2012 138 575 147 23 87 91 2 10.3% 18.3% 0.285 0.366 0.49

El Dudaroni will get a full Project write up soon, but here we get a peek into what the issues will be. There isn't a ton of harmony between these two lines -- ZiPs doesn't agree with the Fans on Duda's ability to show the same power or contact in his sophomore effort. Looking up and down his player card, though, it's unclear why all the pessimism about his strikeout rate. The only time Duda struck out more than 20% of the time above High-A was in his 92-PA debut. The power? It's an open and obvious question. Take the plunge and opine.

Daniel Murphy (project him)

G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2011 109 423 125 6 49 49 5 5.7% 9.9% 0.32 0.362 0.448
ZiPs 2012 106 403 106 8 42 52 5 6.5% 11.4% 0.286 0.334 0.432
Fans 2012 132 566 156 9 69 80 4 7.1% 11.5% 0.297 0.35 0.424

We actually have a fair amount of data on Murphy -- over 1100 PAS worth -- so it's not surprising that these projections line up. The biggest difference comes in playing time, where the Fans think that Murphy can actually make it through a semi-full year at second base. Can he protect his knee? Can he figure out the turn? Or do these fans think that Murphy is headed to third after a big trade? After a couple of years of plus defense around the infield -- numbers which might surprise some observers -- the Fans also penciled Murphy in for a scratch glove this year. Scratch at second, with those numbers... sounds good.

Josh Thole (project him)

G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2011 114 386 91 3 22 40 9.8% 12.2% 0.268 0.345 0.344
ZiPs 2012 132 472 114 4 36 46 2 9.3% 11.7% 0.271 0.342 0.363
Fans 2012 123 496 124 5 55 61 10.1% 12.1% 0.278 0.354 0.361

Here, the question is about a few ticks of walk rate. Thole Mole has been pretty steady so far in his career, so this result isn't so surprising. Will he walk more like 2010 or 2011? Figuring that out is your mission, should you accept it.

Jason Bay (project him)

G PA H HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
2011 123 509 109 12 59 57 11 11.0% 21.4% 0.245 0.329 0.374
ZiPs 2012 119 501 107 16 60 63 9 12.2% 22.6% 0.249 0.344 0.419
Fans 2012 132 551 129 16 72 74 12 10.9% 21.6% 0.263 0.344 0.432

Surprised by the degree to which these lines agree? Perhaps the Fans are giving Bay a little more power from the new walls, but it's not showing up in the home run numbers. Their pessimism about Bay's walks is understandable. It's been a tough couple of years to watch the prized acquisition at the plate.

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