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Baseball Prospectus 2013 Mets Top Ten Prospects

The BP staff weighs in on the exceedingly interesting question, Wheeler or d'Arnaud?

By Rob Castellano

The guys over at Baseball Prospectus have joined in on the fun as they posted their 2013 Mets Top Ten Prospects list yesterday. Historically authored by the newest member of the Astros front office -- Kevin Goldstein -- this year the minor league faction of the BP staff -- led by Jason Parks -- made it a collaborative effort.

Additionally, their list takes into account the latest injection of talent to the Mets farm system, as it relates to the Dickey trade -- unlike last week's Baseball America top ten. As I've stated here before, with expectations for further dealings that could affect the club's farm system (see, Cowgill), we're going to wait for the dust to settle a bit before producing a final product here at AA.

But back to our main point; the BP list goes as follows:

  1. RHP Zack Wheeler
  2. C Travis d'Arnaud
  3. RHP Noah Syndergaard
  4. RHP Michael Fulmer
  5. 3B/1B Wilmer Flores
  6. SS Gavin Cecchini
  7. ​RHP Domingo Tapia
  8. RHP Jeurys Familia
  9. OF Brandon Nimmo
  10. RHP Rafael Montero

Good list; I don't expect wild variations on my own version. My initial reactions:

  • The first thing Mets prospect watchers are going to be scanning for in any subsequent ranking is Wheeler or d'Arnaud? Interesting to see that BP stuck with the high ceiling pitcher, agreeing with the overwhelming majority in the quick poll we ran here on Sunday. It's an interesting discussion point as you really can go either way, based on preference for the relative safety of a position player -- albeit one with an injury history who plays a very physically taxing position -- or the mindset that young top tier pitching trumps all, especially at a reasonable price.
  • Kudos to Sandy for delivering a pair of top three prospects for Dickey. While it would have been easy to take the positionally suitable but highly flawed CF Anthony Gose as the secondary prospect, Syndergaard is a top flight pitcher who, at his best, could slot in between Wheeler and Harvey.
  • It's interesting to see Tapia a few slots ahead of Montero on this list given Montero's breakout 2012 campaign versus Tapia's unsteady one. In that case I think it clearly comes down to a choice between dependability -- being Montero -- versus upside with Tapia.
  • Worth noting the placement of Flores versus the BA ranking that had him behind both Cecchini and Nimmo. Despite his lack of a true position -- in this case, note that they list him at third and first, not second -- clearly BP feels that the value of his bat outweighs all that. Either way, it'll be interesting to see how this situation plays itself out next summer if Flores picks up where he left off offensively and forces the issue.

Once again, you've heard plenty from me so what do you all think?

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