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Mets vs. Braves: Saber-stat Series Preview

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After taking the weekend series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Mets (6-3, .5 GB) travel to Atlanta to begin a three-game series against the Braves (5-4, 1.5GB). The Mets managed to sweep the Braves in the first series of this young season, but since then the Braves have gone 5-1, taking two out of three against the Astros before sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers. Oddly enough, the Braves rode their bats to five straight victories while their pitching and defense has left much to be desired early on.

Meanwhile, the Mets have scored runs at a below average pace to start the season, but have done a very good job at preventing runs. Despite a few meltdowns here and there, the pitching and defense has been a pleasant surprise. If nothing else, the staff has decided that giving up home runs is just plain silly, and that's turned out to be a great strategy.

Be sure to watch how the Braves approach Ike Davis in this series and how he performs. Davis struggled mightily against the Braves and Tommy Hanson in particular last time, allowing himself to be eaten alive by a barrage of off-speed offerings and pitches down and away. Ike did have three hits over the weekend, one being a home run off Cole Hamels in yesterday's loss (which was on a pitch decidedly not down and away). However, I am looking at this series for signs that Davis is making the necessary adjustments at the plate.

With pitching (oddly) favoring the Mets and offense seemingly even, I'll say the boys from Queens stay hot and take two out of three from the Braves.

Be sure to check out Talking Chop and Capital Avenue Club for excellent Braves coverage.


Graphic Guide: League average is scaled to 100. Scores higher than 100 indicate performance better than league average, less than 100 indicates performance worse than league average regardless of whether the statistic is related to run scoring or run prevention.

Statistics have not been park adjusted (although they may be in the future), but are adjusted for each team's respective league.

Run Scoring

RS/G: Runs Scored per Game

wOBA: Weighted On-base Average

OBP: On-base Percentage

ISO: Isolated Power

BB/K: Ratio of Walks to Strikeouts

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio

Runs Allowed

RA/G: Runs Against per Game

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching

SIERA: Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average

GB/FB: Ratio of Ground balls to Fly balls

K/BB: Strikeouts to Walk Ratio

BABIP: Batting Average on Balls in Play

HR/FB: Home run to Fly Ball Ratio